A NASA satellite is expected to return to Earth on Tuesday, March 10, after spending nearly 14 years in orbit. The spacecraft in question is Van Allen Probe A, which weighs about 1,323 pounds (600 kilograms). It was launched along with its twin, Van Allen Probe B, in August 2012 to study the radiation belts surrounding Earth. Both probes were deactivated in 2019, but Probe A’s time in orbit has come to an end. Experts say most of the satellite will burn up upon re-entry, although some fragments could survive. The risk to people on the ground is low, about 1 in 4,200.The estimated reentry time, according to the US Space Force, is 7:45 pm EDT on March 10, give or take 24 hours. Observers note that this is only an estimate and that adjustments may occur as monitoring data improves. The surviving pieces are likely to fall into the ocean, since water covers nearly 70 percent of the Earth’s surface. It seems unlikely that any major city will see debris fall nearby.

NASA’s Van Allen probe satellite is expected to re-enter Earth’s atmosphere on March 10

The Van Allen probes were initially called radiation belt storm probes. They orbited the Earth in a highly elliptical path, ranging between 384 miles (618 km) and 18,900 miles (30,415 km) in distance. The mission was designed to last only two years, but both satellites exceeded expectations. Probe A continued collecting data until October 2019, while Probe B operated until July 2019. Experts say solar activity in recent years has expanded Earth’s atmosphere, increasing friction on satellites. This likely caused probe A to descend earlier than originally planned.During their years of operation, the Van Allen probes collected data about the radiation belts around the Earth. Scientists use this information to understand how solar activity affects satellites, astronauts, and even systems on the ground, such as communications networks, GPS, and power grids. By studying these regions, researchers reportedly improved forecasts of space weather events, which can sometimes interfere with Earth’s electronic systems. The data also helps plan future missions and better predict the dangers of solar storms.

NASA details satellite re-entry and risk of debris

NASA points out that most of the satellite will burn up as it passes through the atmosphere. Still, certain components could survive. These fragments could fall into the ocean, making the risk to humans very small. Experts estimate about a 0.02 percent chance of injury. Observers say that while it’s interesting to keep track, people shouldn’t worry. The Space Force will update reentry predictions in real time, so a more accurate time may be approaching the event.

What will happen to NASA’s second Van Allen probe satellite?

Probe B is not expected to return to Earth until around 2030. Its descent appears to be less affected by recent solar activity than Probe A. Both satellites were deactivated but remain in orbit until re-entry. They continue to serve as a reference for scientists who study space weather and its effects. Experts say tracking its descent helps improve understanding of orbital decay and atmospheric drag, which is useful for other satellites still in service.