Earthquakes are one of the many natural phenomena that, despite advances in technology, still cannot be predicted in advance. Researchers in Japan, a country that frequently experiences devastating earthquakes, are proposing to look for an otherworldly source: the sun.

In a recent paper published in International Journal of Plasma Environmental Science and Technologyresearchers are considering the possibility that solar activity is linked to earthquakes. When solar flares disrupt Earth’s magnetic field, they also cause small changes in Earth’s upper atmosphere, which act as electrical forces that cause Earth’s crust to shift, scientists said. Although these forces are weak, they can act as the straw that breaks the camel’s back.

“To be clear, we are not claiming that solar flares cause tectonic stress.” Ken UmenoThe study’s lead author, an applied mathematician at Kyoto University, told Gizmodo. “Our discussion is about timing, not energy. If the fault is already close to rupture, even small perturbations can change when rupture occurs.”

lively part of the earth

The study’s model views the Earth’s crust and ionosphere (the part of Earth’s upper atmosphere filled with charged particles) as a giant electrical circuit. According to NOAAwireless and satellite communication systems rely on this particular aspect of the ionosphere.

This also means that the ionosphere tends to be highly influenced by solar phenomena such as solar flares and magnetic storms, which change the electromagnetic profile of the atmospheric layers.

The Earth’s crust, on the other hand, has its own heightened electromagnetic activity. After all, Earth’s magnetic field itself is a product of the movement of hot molten iron and nickel in the Earth’s outer core. This constant movement of hot bulk material underground gives the Earth’s crust a permanent magnetism. United States Geological Survey.

cascade of electrons

In the paper, the researchers combine the electromagnetic properties of these two layers. Given that the ionosphere is sensitive to solar activity, powerful charged particles within solar flares can move electrons in the ionosphere downward.

This surge increases electron density at low altitudes, disrupting the electrostatic balance in the Earth’s crust. When pressure reaches a certain level, it can generate enough force to displace faults in the Earth’s crust. Normally, the Earth’s crust doesn’t care much about such disturbances, but the situation could be different on “severely stressed faults,” Umeno said.

The paper claims that the model is consistent with weather patterns in space. Noto Peninsula Earthquake Even for Japan, where earthquakes are common, these events were truly devastating, killing at least 700 people and damaging 204,903 buildings. Japan is one of the most seismically active regions in the world, experience Approximately 1,500 earthquakes occur every year. The day before, Strongest solar flare on record to occur in 2023 It was colliding with the earth. Similarly, the X-class flare was followed by another earthquake in December 2025, Umeno added.

Coincidence or pattern?

This is not the first time scientists have suggested this link, but the question is now part of the U.S. Geological Survey. FAQ section than in academia. Similarly, the new paper provides a provocative mathematical analysis, but other experts have concerns about its validity.

In an email to Gizmodo, Nicholas SchumerA geophysicist at the University of Maryland called the study “highly speculative.” Schumer said the paper “does not present a thorough analysis or well-supported evidence that the mechanism they propose links solar flares and earthquakes.”

“Instead, they show the simultaneous occurrence of one solar flare and one earthquake, which is probably just a coincidence,” he added.

Viktor Novikov, a geophysicist at the Russian Academy of Sciences, said: live science It said the model was “significantly simplified” and did not take into account factors such as the electrical resistance of rock layers within the Earth’s crust, which could override the effects proposed in the model.

Not a “revolution”

In response, Umeno acknowledged the feedback and said the paper “does not claim definitive statistical evidence.” However, he argues that “classifying relationships as follows: [a] Coincidence assumes that seismic systems are dynamically isolated from space weather and that “scale-to-scale interactions are common in complex systems science in near-unstable conditions.”

Asked about plans to further validate the model, Umeno said the team is currently planning a larger analysis. And if it turns out there is “no measurable conditional effect,” that alone would lead to a rejection, he said.

“We are not advocating revolution,” Umeno said. “If the data refute it, the current framework is valid. If measurable timing modulation is present, seismic hazard models may need to be extended. In any case, testing this question is scientifically valuable.”

high-stakes bet

Specifically, the paper proposes that solar flares push already stressed faults past their tipping point, causing earthquakes.do not have Flares are directly related to earthquakes. But in the bigger picture of things, one could argue that a million other tiny objects in Earth’s various systems could serve a similar function to solar flares in the new model.

In short, this study gives us a lot to think about. As Umeno himself notes, it will take years of careful statistical analysis to reach a final verdict.