aIt’s hard to describe England’s progress at the World Cup as ugly, with four wins from five games and just one place away from securing a place in the semi-finals. But it wasn’t easy. Like an upside-down swan, it’s obvious to everyone that they’re struggling, yet somehow their progress up to this point has been modest.

There are no bonus points for artistic achievements, and all you need to do to win the tournament is be slightly better than your opponent at each stage. For example, 2021 T20 champions Australia were one of the few teams considered to be the best in the competition until Aaron Finch lifted the trophy in Dubai, but they were wiped out by England, especially in the group stages.

Harry Brook continues to promise that it will launch soon. “Look, we haven’t played a perfect game yet,” he said after Sunday’s win against Sri Lanka. “With the bat, we haven’t had the big scores that we wanted, which everyone likes to see. But I think it’s a very exciting prospect. To my eye, it looks like something could happen soon.”

But probably not right away. Tuesday’s match against Pakistan is expected to be another tricky one, given England’s struggles against spin and the opposition’s abundance of spinners.

Pakistan have bowled just 16.5 seam overs in this tournament, far fewer than any other team. So far in this tournament, 78.2% of all the deliveries Pakistan have bowled have come from Pakistan’s spinners. In the game against India, he recorded 17 consecutive spin overs, which reached 90%. They may be planning something similar for the high-stakes match against England. Since the first match of the Super 8 was canceled due to rain, a loss would put them in danger of being eliminated.

“They struggled against the spinners,” Pakistan’s Sahibzada Farhan said of England’s performance against Sri Lanka. “We have some of the best spinners so I’m sure we will give them a tough fight. Morale is very high and we are completely confident.”

Clearly, England’s weakness against spin has gone unnoticed, and no team has faced it more this World Cup. Even if Bald’s stats don’t suggest they’re completely unhappy – 59.6% of the deliveries they faced were delivered by spinners, with 59.4% of wickets and 58% of runs matched almost perfectly – their discomfort is physically evident.

So far, Jacob Bethel has been dismissed only as a spinner, while Brook has lost wickets for spin in four out of five matches. In England’s only loss against the West Indies in Mumbai, he meekly put the ball back into Gudakesh Motier’s hands and said afterwards: “I’d rather get caught on the boundary than the way I did today.” However, Brook’s dismissals continue to be marked by cowardice, including against Sri Lanka when he was trapped LBW by Danis Wellerage while attempting to defend the ball to the leg side.

“We were very good at [against spin] Liam Dawson said: “We had some tough matches here in the bilateral series against Sri Lanka, but we won. We know we can bat much better than we have been batting in the past, but winning the match is important.”

On Sunday, Dawson batted ahead of Jamie Overton, whose strength is his strong hitting to match his pace. “We were just trying to keep him a little bit further back in case Seamers came along,” Dawson said.

England have again chosen not to reveal their team name until the toss, but the fact that their seamers may not feature at all in this match means the choice between Overton and Luke Wood is likely to be determined solely by their bowling. Will the temptation to not change a winning team overcome the urge to tweak an unconvincing team?

One of England’s advantages is that they are more familiar with their surroundings. Pakistan has played one one-day international match in Palekele against India in the last 10 years. England played four T20s here last month and won them all.

For Farhan, it’s a completely new venue. “It’s my first time here, but all the senior players have played here before,” he said. “I heard they were good for batting and the ball was coming onto the bat well. But the match between England and Sri Lanka was a little different. We’ll see how the wicket goes tomorrow.”

Farhan is the tournament’s top scorer with 220 points, but all of those came against the three weaker teams in the first round group, and he was sent off for a duck against India. Like Sri Lanka’s Pathum Nissanka, whose hasty sacking on Sunday sparked the collapse, he will be England’s number one choice when they start working on the field. “Yes, they will definitely have a plan,” Farhan said. “But I have a plan too. They’re not the only ones who have a plan.”