Preview: AC Milan vs Inter Milan – prediction, team news, lineups

In a last-ditch attempt to stop their city rivals from slipping away, AC Milan will take on Series A Leaders Inter Milan will meet on Sunday night at the San Siro.

The second Derby della Madonnina of this season comes with both teams competing for the Scudetto, but Milan are 10 points behind Inter and simply must win to stay in contention.


Match preview

After a 1-0 loss to Parma recently ended Milan’s 24-game unbeaten streak in Serie A, the Rossoneri managed to avoid another setback last weekend, against the last team to beat them in Italy’s top flight.

Cremonese had surprisingly won at the San Siro on matchday one, but late goals from Strahinja Pavlovic and Rafael Leao reversed that result and prevented Milan from falling to within 12 points of the league leaders.

Max Allegri’s men had previously needed a last-gasp winner to beat lowly Pisa, before earning a draw at home against high-flying Como, so they have struggled to match Inter’s momentum.

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Although they have only lost twice in Serie A, their Nerazzurri rivals have been defeated four times so far, but Allegri’s team have also drawn eight more times, and that has resulted in a 10-point deficit.

Now prepared to “welcome” their stadium-sharing foes, Milan have managed just one win in their last four home games; another late goal saw them overtake Lecce in mid-January.

However, the Rossoneri can reflect on a major change in second-city derbies, having suffered several painful defeats at the hands of Inter.

In all competitions, they have won four and are unbeaten in their last six games, including a 1-0 win in the first game of this season.

Thus, Milan could do a double in the Serie A derby for the first time since 2011, during Allegri’s successful first spell at the club.

© Iconsport / LaPresse

Of course, Inter will have different plans for this match, as they are unbeaten in the league since late November, when they lost 1-0 to their fierce city rivals.

On that occasion, former Milan player Hakan Calhanoglu was denied by Mike Maignan from the penalty spot, but the Nerazzurri responded by going 15 games without losing in Serie A.

Although recently limped out of EuropeLast week’s 2-0 win over Genoa made it eight straight league wins for the imperious leaders, and that run sees them dominating the division.

Inter are the top scorers (they have scored 21 times more than Milan) and have scored the most goals from set pieces by some distance: their tally of 21 includes 15 from corner kicks, the most in the league. Meanwhile, Milan have conceded half of their goals from set-piece situations, including 25% from corner kicks.

With the Scudetto all but sealed, Cristian Chivu’s side continued their quest for a rare domestic double on Tuesday night, visiting Como for the first leg of their Coppa Italia semi-final.

After a dismal goalless draw that set them up nicely for next month’s home game, the Nerazzurri must now look to finish off the title race.

Technically “away” this weekend, Chivu and company have won their last nine away games in Serie A (keeping a clean sheet in the last six), so Inter could make it 10 consecutive away wins for the second time in their entire top-flight history.

They will have the opportunity to do so in familiar surroundings, and another victory at San Siro would give them a surely unassailable lead of 13 points with only 10 rounds remaining.

AC Milan Serie A Form:

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Inter Milan Serie A form:

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Inter Milan form (all competitions):

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Team news

© Imago / Marco Canoniero

Milan midfielder Ruben Loftus-Cheek will be out for several weeks with a serious facial injurywhile center back Matteo Gabbia (hernia) and forgotten forward Santiago Giménez (ankle) are also out.

However, Allegri can turn to Davide Bartesaghi as the young full-back quickly recovered from a flexor problem he suffered against Cremonese.

Although Christopher Nkunku and Niclas Fullkrug are also competing for two forward spots, Christian Pulisic and Rafael Leao are likely to remain up front.

Since scoring the decisive goal in the first leg in November, Pulisic’s excellent form has been hampered by fitness problems, and he has failed to register a goal in nine subsequent appearances.

Still, having scored in three of his last six derbies, the US international could become the first Milan player to score in both league games against Inter since Kaká in the 2003-04 campaign.

Leao is now the Rossoneri’s top scorer, after scoring his ninth goal of the season in Serie A last weekend, but the Nerazzurri must cope without their leading scorer.

Inter captain, and current Capocannoniere leader, Lautaro Martínez is still sidelined with a calf injury, so Chivu will choose two of Francesco Pio Esposito, Marcus Thuram and Ange-Yoan Bonny to spearhead their attack.

After making his first start in several weeks in Tuesday’s cup draw, Calhanoglu should be prepared to face his former club, seeking redemption for that missed penalty earlier this season.

Denzel Dumfries is also back in contention after almost four months on the sidelines, while a number of men will return to the first XI having been rested in midweek.

Yann Sommer and Nicolo Barella are among them, but Federico Dimarco is perhaps the most notable: the latter has been involved in 12 goals in 10 Serie A matches this calendar year, double that of any other player.

Possible starting lineup for AC Milan:

Maignan; Tomori, De Winter, Pavlovic; Saelemaekers, Fofana, Modric, Rabiot, Bartesaghi; Pulisic, Leao

Possible starting lineup for Inter Milan:

Summer; Bisseck, Akanji, Bastoni; Henrique, Barella, Calhanoglu, Zielinski, Dimarco; Thuram, Esposito

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We say: AC Milan 1-2 Inter Milan

The blue and black half of Italy’s second city will celebrate on Sunday night, and probably beyond, when Inter can effectively seal the Scudetto with an increasingly rare derby victory.

Milan have done well to stay in touch so far, but their free-scoring foes need a big win against their main rivals and have plenty of incentive to finally get one.

For a data analysis of the most likely outcomes, scores and more for this match, click here.



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