The US-Israel war against Iran could leave consumers and businesses around the world facing weeks or months of higher fuel prices even if the conflict, now in its eighth day, ends quickly, as suppliers face damaged facilities, disrupted logistics and elevated risks to shipping.

The outlook poses a global economic threat and political vulnerability for US President Donald Trump ahead of the midterm elections, with voters sensitive to energy bills and unfavorable to foreign entanglements.

Global oil prices have risen more than 25 percent since the start of the war, raising fuel prices for consumers around the world.

The national average price of gasoline reached $3.41 per gallon ($0.9 per liter) on Saturday, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA), increasing $0.43 over the past week. Goldman Sachs warned that oil prices could rise above $100 a barrel if shipping disruptions continue.

U.S. crude oil closed Friday at just under $91 a barrel, its biggest weekly gain on record in data dating back to 1983, indicating prices could continue to rise.

“The market is shifting from pricing pure geopolitical risk to dealing with tangible operational disruptions, as refinery closures and export restrictions begin to hurt crude processing and regional supply flows,” analysts at JP Morgan said earlier this week, according to the Reuters news agency.

The conflict has already led to the suspension of around a fifth of the world’s supply of crude oil and natural gas, as Tehran attacks ships in the vital Strait of Hormuz, between its coasts and Oman, and attacks energy infrastructure across the region.

A near-complete closure of the strait means the region’s major oil producers – Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq and Kuwait – have had to suspend shipments of up to 140 million barrels of oil – equivalent to about 1.4 days of global demand – to global refiners.

According to the World Bank, more than 80 percent of global trade is carried out by sea, meaning disruptions to the waterway could increase freight costs and delay deliveries of goods.

Djibouti Finance Minister Ilyas M. Dawaleh warned Saturday that the fighting would “bring serious economic consequences for developing countries.” Small states that rely on maritime trade “risk being drawn into deeper economic uncertainty as external crises spread across the region and #Africa,” he wrote in X.

Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi said last week that his country’s economy was in a “state of near emergency,” warning of rising inflation.

Storage in the filling of the Gulf

As a result of these developments, oil and gas storage at facilities in the Gulf is filling up rapidly, forcing oilfields in Iraq and Kuwait to cut oil production, with the United Arab Emirates likely to be next to cut, analysts, traders and sources told Reuters.

“At some point soon, everyone will also go into lockdown if the ships don’t arrive,” a source at a state oil company in the region, who asked not to be identified, told Reuters.

Oilfields forced to close across the Middle East as a result of shipping disruptions could take some time to return to normal, said Amir Zaman, head of Rystad Energy’s Americas trading team.

“The conflict could end, but it could take days, weeks or months, depending on the types of fields, the age of the field, the type of closure they have had to do before production can return to what it was before,” he said.

Meanwhile, Iranian forces are attacking regional energy infrastructure, including refineries and terminals, forcing them to shut down as well, and some of those operations are severely damaged by the attacks and in need of repairs.

Qatar declared force majeure on its huge gas export volumes on Wednesday after the Iranian drone attacks, and it could take at least a month to return to normal production levels, sources told Reuters. Qatar supplies 20 percent of the world’s liquefied natural gas (LNG).

Meanwhile, Saudi Aramco’s giant Ras Tanura refinery and crude oil export terminal also closed due to the attacks, with no details on the damage.

Economists warn that the situation could create a combination of higher prices and slower growth.