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“Vaccines are not a growth area under this administration,” said Stephen Farrelly, global leader of pharmaceuticals and healthcare at ING, suggesting the sector could be held back until 2028.
Vaccine policy under the Kennedy administration
Kennedy, a longtime anti-vaccine activist who has questioned the safety and effectiveness of vaccines despite scientific evidence, has moved swiftly since taking over the Department of Health and Human Services in the Trump administration.
He also revived research on long-debunked claims linking vaccines to autism and adopted a new tapered schedule for childhood vaccines without using the long-standing practice of involving a broad group of outside experts.
Investors and analysts initially viewed Kennedy’s appointment as a major risk rather than a fundamental threat.
Kennedy said the changes are aimed at improving safety and bringing U.S. vaccine policy in line with other countries.
An HHS spokesperson said in a statement that vaccine recommendations are based on the best available scientific evidence and public health considerations, not corporate interests.
This surprising policy change has begun to spark a rare public rebuke from industry leaders.
Bourla told reporters that vaccination rates are declining and the risk of disease is increasing. “It’s really frustrating,” he said. “What is happening now has no scientific value at all and is only serving a political, anti-vaccine purpose.”
political pressure begins to build
Investors said the long-term outlook for vaccine makers remains strong as vaccines remain the most effective means of preventing disease. But they said companies were now becoming more subject to the whims of political leaders.
“Unfortunately, success and failure depend on the opinions of a few people. Good science and commercial opportunity are not enough,” said Clear Street analyst Bill Maughan. “If you’re a biotech investor, it seems difficult to get real confidence in the name of the vaccine at this point.”
Investors said they would favor large drug makers that are less dependent on vaccine revenue, such as GSK, Sanofi, Pfizer and Merck. Smaller companies like Moderna, BioNTech, and Novavax face more serious risks.
The effects of changes in the United States are already beginning to be felt. GSK and Sanofi reported lower U.S. flu vaccine sales in the third quarter despite a more severe flu season.
“There’s clearly a consumer response to this narrative that’s coming out in the U.S.,” Jefferies analyst Michael Leuchten said.
long term perspective
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recently announced that at least 11 million infections and 5,000 deaths have been reported so far in the 2025-2026 influenza season, nearly double the number of deaths from last year.
Linden Thomson, senior portfolio manager at asset management firm Candium, said investors “often focus on short-term time frames, but companies are clearly taking a long-term view.”
“These businesses have been around for decades. They’re not investing with a one- or two-year horizon in mind,” agreed Matthew Masucci, an analyst at Carodine Capital, which owns shares in GSK and Sanofi.
But for now, investors may be more cautious.
Ian Turnbull, an equity analyst at investment firm Mawar, said U.S. policy and skepticism about vaccines were holding back investment.
“It certainly makes the market less attractive to invest in when demand isn’t as predictable as it used to be,” he said.
Report by Bhanvi Satija. Additional reporting by Maggie Fick in London and Michael Ehrman in New York. Editing: Adam Jourdan, Michelle Gershberg, Bill Berkrot
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