The Tigers acquired the top remaining free agent in the offseason, reportedly agreeing to a three-year contract with the Tigers. Framber Valdez It guarantees $115 million. The deal is pending a physical, but the star left-hander is allowed to opt out after two seasons. This includes a $20 million signing bonus and an unspecified amount of deferred payments. Valdez is represented by the Octagon.
Valdez reunites with AJ Hinch, giving the Tigers a lethal 1-2 combination at the top of the rotation. he will step back Tariq Skubal Step onto the starting staff and suddenly look like one of the best players in the American League. Following them are Reese Olson, jack flaherty and Casey Mize I hope everyone survives the camp in good health. That would push KBO signees Drew Anderson Shifted to swing role, second year right-hander Troy Melton He’ll either pitch out of the bullpen or wait in Triple-A until a rotation spot becomes available.
The two-time Cy Young Award winning duo, Skubal and Valdez, may only be with the team for one season, as they are one year away from signing what would have been a record-setting free agent deal. Skubal and the club held a hearing this morning to determine whether he will earn $19 million or $32 million in his final year under club control. The arbitrator is not expected to make his decision known until tomorrow. Chris McCoskey of the Detroit News Both the Tigers and Skubal’s camp confirmed that they do not yet know which way they will govern. Valdez pickups are an independent decision.
It’s the win-now strike that much of Detroit’s fan base has been waiting for all offseason. The Tigers had a fairly conservative trade deadline, and their biggest move prior to tonight was to retain Flaherty with a $20 million player option. Gleyber Torres Via $22.025MM Qualifying Offer. They also brought back the setup man Kyle Finnegan Adds Anderson and closer on two-year deal Kenley Jansen On a one year contract. While they did a decent job of building depth, they didn’t chip in to acquire any impact players for what could be Skubal’s final season in the Motor City.
Valdez provided a ceiling that Detroit’s other acquisitions lacked. He is a two-time All-Star and has finished in the top 10 in Cy Young Award voting in three of the past four seasons. Valdez has made his way to the big leagues from an unprecedented amateur signing in 2018. He spent his first two seasons working in a swing role with Hinch’s Astros. Valdez became a full rotation player during the shortened 2020 season and has been one of the best pitchers in MLB over the past six years.
The southpaw has posted an ERA under 4.00 every season since becoming a full-time starter. He also has exceptional durability and has only been on the disabled list twice in his MLB career. He fractured his left ring finger during 2021 spring training when he was attacked by a returning player. He returned from that injury by the end of May. His only other IL stint was in early ’24 when he missed two weeks with elbow inflammation. He returned without incident and ultimately started 29 games between the regular season and the playoffs.
Valdez is tied for 14th in starts and ranks fifth with 973 innings dating back to 2020. His cumulative ERA during that time was 3.23. This also includes sub-3.00 box office results for 2022 and 2024. Valdez was one of the most consistent top rotation starters in MLB, at least until the second half of the year when he got on base. He posted an ERA of 2.82 to 3.45 in each season from 2021-24. He topped 175 innings in each of his last three years.
Valdez was on a similar pace in the first half of last season. He had a 2.75 ERA in 121 frames before the All-Star break. Valdez came off the break with two more quality starts and entered August with a 2.62 ERA (a top 10 mark among qualifiers). He picked a tough time, probably the worst few months of his career. Valdez dramatically reduced his strikeout rate to 17.7% over his last 10 starts, posting an impressive 6.05 ERA. His sinker velocity decreased slightly and opponents teed off with sinkers in August and September. There was no sign that he was tilting his pitches, and poor performance appeared to be the main cause of the problem.
Valdez also caused controversy when he started against the Yankees on September 2nd. Trent Grishamhe hit the catcher Cesar Salazar He hit a 93 mph sinker in the chest with a cross-up. Salazar was clearly expecting a breaking ball and didn’t have time to react to the fastball. Valdez did not check the catcher at that moment. Salazar was not injured and finished the match without incident.
The pitcher denied that the cross-up was intentional. Salazar did his best to publicly downplay the incident, claiming he pressed the wrong button on Pitchcom. Even so, visibility was poor as the pitcher appeared disinterested on the mound. Valdez said after the match that he apologized to his battery mate.
Did it have any impact on his market value? It’s impossible to know from the outside, but one imagines that some team asked Valdez about the incident during the free agency process. It’s worth noting that the Detroit team coached by his former captain is the one that ended up signing him, so they don’t seem to have any concerns about his composition or presence in the clubhouse.
The decline in production in the second half of the season and Valdez’s age were probably the bigger factors in extending his stay in free agency. He finished the year with a 3.66 ERA in 192 innings pitched. His 23.3% strikeout rate and 8.5% walk rate matched his career marks. His strikeouts and walks are solid, but his game has always been built around ground balls. His career ground ball rate is 62 percent, and his ground ball retention rate last season was 58.6 percent, the third-highest mark among pitchers with at least 100 innings.
Not a whimsical approach as some might prefer dylan stop Brought to the table this offseason, Valdez’s statistical profile is max fried. They are both ground ball specialists with sinkers that sit in the mid-90s and lead profiles. Fried signed an eight-year, $218 million contract last winter. The biggest difference is that it happened ahead of his age-31 season, whereas Valdez turned 32 in November.
A one-year age difference may not seem like a big deal, but teams are reluctant to sign a 32-year-old free agent pitcher to a long-term contract. Zack Greinke, jacob degrom and blake snell Since 2011, they are the only pitchers older than their age to have been in charge for more than five years. All of them had at least one Cy Young on their resume by that point. Valdez’s inconsistent production effectively voided his six-year contract. MLBTR predicted a five-year, $150 million contract at the beginning of the offseason. With him still unsigned in February, it became increasingly clear that a five-year deal was not going to happen.
On the surface, Valdez appears to be doing pretty well despite signing a week before the start of spring training. But the true value of this deal won’t really be known until the extent of the deferral is reported. The sticker price comes with a hefty average annual value of $38.33 million That would be the rank 10th all-time. The net present value is reduced at least to some extent by deferred funds.
Regardless of the deal break-up, this easily ranks as the boldest free agent move in Scott Harris’ four-year baseball career. This is Detroit’s first nine-figure investment since the unfortunate incident. Javier Baez The deal was signed under former GM Al Avila. Harris’ front office did not make more than $35 million in free agency. It was a two-year deal to re-sign Flaherty almost exactly a year ago. There’s some similarities to Valdez in that you’re waiting to get a high-end starter off the market in the short term, but this is clearly a much more significant investment.
The Tigers ran a competitive balance tax payroll of $188 million last season. This year it will likely be higher, but it’s not clear by how much. roster resources currently estimates the CBT amount at approximately $237 million, but pencils in the midpoint of the arbitration filing’s figure as a placeholder for Skubal. Arbitrators do not have that luxury. That means CBT’s estimate would change by $6.5 million in either direction. We’re also using Valdez’s annual base amount of $38.33 million, which exceeds the actual number by an unknown amount until the breakdown of deferrals is known.
Detroit also stripped Valdez of his draft capital after he rejected a qualifying offer from the Astros. They have the lowest penalty because they are revenue-sharing recipients and are the third-highest pick in the 2026 draft. This is currently slated to be a Competitive Balance Round B selection and comes in at No. 69 overall. The Tigers may consider trading the pick rather than losing it in exchange – only competitive balance selections can be traded. They would then give up a third-round pick (98th overall), but another team might be more willing to give up something more valuable for a higher draft pick and the accompanying slot value, making Detroit worth losing the third-round pick.
Houston had no interest in meeting Valdez’s asking price. As luxury taxpayers, they receive compensation nominations after the fourth round. It would rank around 133rd overall. Houston acquired in trade mike burrows and signed Tatsuya Imai and Ryan Weiss To backfill the depth of the rotation, even if it’s unlikely to replace the ceiling that Valdez brings.
The Blue Jays, Orioles and Pirates were recently linked to Valdez. ESPN’s Jesse Rogers Surprisingly, reports say the Twins have also been added to the mix. He was perhaps a unique target for the Toronto club, which already occupies the sixth spot in the rotation. Baltimore could pivot to mid-level starters like: Zac Gallen (Last unsigned player to refuse QO), Chris Bassitt or Lucas Giolito. Medium rotation arms are also possible in Pittsburgh. At least the Bucks will add a fifth starter for a few million dollars. Minnesota has a solid rotation but reportedly kicked the tires freddy peralta Trade is similar, and appears to remain on the periphery of the market in search of potential influence.
ESPN’s Jeff Passan It was reported to be a three-year, $115 million contract with an opt-out after the second year. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal First, there was the question of whether or not it would be postponed. John Heyman of the New York Post There was a $20MM bonus.
Image courtesy of Dale Zanine, Imagine Images.