The Democratic People’s Party is leading in the polls, but Thailand has been here before. Thailand

a Thirty-eight-year-old Thai politician Nattaporn Ruempanyawut has been showered with gifts by his adoring fans. Supporters, many of them young students, hand out orange garlands, plastic oranges on strings, fresh orange fruit, bunches of bananas and corn on the cob.

The trademark orange color is one of the few constants for his youthful pro-reform party, which has been twice dissolved by Thailand’s Constitutional Court and forced to reform under a new name and new leadership.

“If you define yourself as being on the side of democracy, please give us a chance,” Nataphon appealed to a crowd of supporters at a People’s Party election rally in Udon Thani, northeastern Thailand, this week. “This party loves democracy.”

Buoyed by support from young and urban voters, the People’s Party is leading in opinion polls heading into Sunday’s election. But it is not expected to win an outright majority and could struggle to form a coalition with rivals who have so far blocked it from gaining power. It also faces an impending legal battle.

The People’s Party will face incumbent prime minister Anutin Charnvirakul, leader Bhumjaithai, a shrewd negotiator backed by the military conservatives of the royalist party, and the Pro-Thai Party, an affiliate of now-jailed former leader Thaksin Shinawatra. Although support for the Thai Contribution Party is expected to decline, the party remains a powerful political force.

Many voters who attended the People’s Party rally said they wanted structural changes in Thailand’s political system. Supporter Rattanakorn Boonchi, 46, said, “I have experienced many elections in my life. I don’t want to see the same system again.I want equality for the people and for young people to be able to express their opinions freely.”

The movement behind the People’s Party emerged just eight years ago, but quickly won public support by promising reforms to make the country more democratic and break up the monopolies that dominate Thailand’s economy.

In the last election in 2023, the predecessor People’s Party, then known as the Forward Party, won the most votes and seats, shocking its military royalist rivals.

However, Move Forward was blocked from gaining power by military-appointed senators and later disbanded by the Constitutional Court. The judges said the party’s pledge to reform the strict lese majeste law, which carries penalties of up to 15 years in prison for criticizing the monarchy, was unconstitutional.

“Corruption is a top priority.”

The party’s members, including leader Nathapon, remain embroiled in litigation, but he is one of 44 former Moward members under investigation by the National Anti-Corruption Commission for ethics violations for attempting to amend the lese majeste law. The party has now withdrawn that policy.

Mr Natafon told the Guardian that he believed the incident was a “very low risk” and that he had done nothing wrong, adding: “It is the right of MPs to propose changes to the law in Parliament.”

Opinion polls suggest that Nataporn, a former software engineer, lacks the rock-star charm of his former party’s charismatic leader Pita Limjaloenrat, who was ousted from public office in 2024. But in Udon Thani, Mr Nataporn has received a warm welcome from screaming supporters. A computer game fan who helped drive the party’s successful online strategy in the last election, he will become the youngest opposition leader in 2024.

Nataporn says his party’s priority is to fight corruption to attract investment and address Thailand’s stagnant economy.

People’s Party leader and prime ministerial candidate Natthaphon Ruempanyawut poses for a selfie with supporters during an election campaign event in Bangkok. Photo: Anusak Raowiras/NurPhoto/Shutterstock

This promise resonates with many supporters. “Corruption is the top priority, if you solve it, the rest will follow,” said Katawut Sukumarachi, 18, a first-time voter. Katawut added that she hopes the economy will be more equal and there will be more opportunities for young people in her hometown of Udon Thani. “We need job opportunities decentralized from the capital. [Bangkok]. I want to work close to home,” Katawut says.

Patcharaporn Bunyong, another first-time voter whose friends let out giddy cries as Nattaporn’s campaign car passed by, hopes Thailand will move away from patronage politics, where people rely on local politicians for short-term support. “I want all Thai people to be financially independent, not just take money from politicians and not be able to create anything for themselves,” she says.

According to Dr. Napon Jatulipitak, a visiting fellow at the Yusof Ishak Institute at ISEAS, the National Party is critical of patronage politics, saying it breeds corruption. While this may be popular with some voters, it could also be a difficult proposition in a climate of slowing economic growth, where voters are experiencing economic hardship.

“It’s very unclear whether voters would prefer candidates from parties that are a little more patronage-oriented, who have done strong service to their constituencies in terms of solving concrete problems, or whether they would prefer candidates from parties that are proposing more structural reform of the Thai economy, as the People’s Party has been trying to do,” Napon said.

Election poster for the Thai general election held in Bangkok
Photo: Maxim Shemetov/Reuters

On Sunday, voters will choose 400 district seats and 100 party-list seats. Voters will also be asked whether they support drafting a new constitution, a process the People’s Party says it supports as it says it wants to make the charter more democratic.

Napon says the People’s Party is likely to have enough support in urban centers such as Bangkok and Chiang Mai, but needs to expand its support in more rural areas as well.

Udon Thani, a target of the People’s Party, is a stronghold of former populist leader Tarkin Shinawatra. At the local market, vendors say many people in the area still pledge allegiance to the Thai Contribution Party. “I’ve been voting for the Thailand Contribution Party since I was 18, and I’m about 50 now,” Kamjan Posen said.

Although she admits she is tired of Thailand’s political upheaval, she says she plans to vote even though this will be the fourth possible change in prime minister since the 2023 general election.

The National Party is trying to persuade its supporters to do the same.

After posing for a selfie in a line of supporters, Natafon told the Guardian: “I truly believe that with a turnout of over 80% in this election, we can bring about real change that brings Thai politics back to the people.”

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