In this feature, we take a capsule look at three horses who are hot in the race for the Triple Crown, and three horses whose chances of competing in the 2026 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve are not as strong as they once were. The second edition of this blog for the 2026 Rose Run focuses on what has changed since the last edition on January 21st.
Heating
1. Silence tactics
My two favorite stakes winners from the past two weeks of Derby racing have definitely been Silent Tactic in the $1 million Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park on February 6th and Renegade in the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs on February 7th (more on Renegade below). I gave Silent Tactic the top spot because he took a big step forward in his fourth career start and second attempt on dirt, and really surprised me and the racing community at 12-1 odds. The Tacitus-bred bay colt ran well in his first two starts at Woodbine’s all-weather track, winning his debut and finishing second in the Grade 3 Bet 365 Gray Stakes. He then finished second in the Smarty Jones Stakes held at Oaklawn Park on January 3, losing to stablemate Strategic Risk by four and a half lengths. He overcame an outside post, wide trip and moderate pace to come from second to last in the 12-horse Southwest field to win by three and a quarter lengths. He completed the final quarter-mile in gaudy finishing times of 24.56 seconds and the final furlong in 12.08 seconds, earning new career-best 88 Beyer speed figures and 103 Equibase speed figures, the latter improving by 17 points and a seven-point improvement over Beyer speed. Of the Gun Runner fillies, Silent Tactic should be able to handle more distance for Hall of Fame trainer Mark Cass.
2. Renegade
Among this group of hot candidates, I believe Renegade has the best chance to win the Kentucky Derby, but it was a tough call to put him in second place here. In fact, I thought highly of him this year based on his last two races (DQ loss to Paladin, second place to rival in the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes), and his dominating win in the $210,000 Sam F. Davis Stakes was no surprise as he was the 6-5 favorite out of a field of nine horses. Nevertheless, he did everything right in his 3-year-old debut and showed the type of development you want to see in a Derby hopeful. He earned career-high Beyer speed points of 92 and Equibase speed points of 100, and left Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher behind in the final 400 meters with a blistering time of 24.30 seconds. As mentioned in this week’s Derby Prediction Profile, Renegade has been produced to excel at 1 1/4 miles and looks like a serious threat to win the first jewel of the Triple Crown.
3. Plutarch
After finishing third in the American Pharoah Stakes presented by DK Horses on October 5, 2025, Plutarch was brought back to the turf by Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert for his final two races as a 2-year-old. Although Plutarch ran other stakes and won his first special grade race, he ran by far the best race of his dirt career in his 3-year-old debut in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita Park on February 7. He chased pacesetter Intrepid (American Pharoah Stakes winner) from the outside along the backstretch, gradually increasing the pressure going into the far turn and narrowly pulling away from his rival in the final 1/16th mile to win by three-quarters of a length. The bay colt, sired by the eternal leading sire Into Mischief, who sired the 2015 champion and Curlin-bred 3-year-old mare Stella Wind, matured in the early stages of the race as he battled head-to-head with his rivals, and showed determination in the latter half to upset the G1 winner. He completed the final quarter mile in 25.65 seconds, moving out of the shadow of some of his rowdy Baffert stablemates to earn a new career-high 90 Beyer Speed Figure.
This also applies to: The other two U.S. grade winners in the past two weeks were Holy Bull Stakes winners. almost and Wizards Stakes winner talk to me jimmy. I featured him last week after Holy Bull, as he almost finished in the top three in the January 21 issue of Heating Up Cool Down with an allowance (optional) to claim a race win. He is a promising stallion, but I didn’t like his slow finish at Holy Bull. Similarly, Talk to Me Jimmy was a commanding 11-length lead winner at Wizards, but his final quarter-mile time of 26.76 seconds at a moderate pace gave me pause in evaluating how he would fare against better competition. … emerging market He looked like a stallion with a very bright future ahead of him, defeating Powershift on the Sam F. Davis undercard at Tampa Bay Downs, earning a debut win at 1 mile and 40 yards and a Beyer Speed Figure of 96. …Since last weekend, the other two first-time winners to add to my Equibase Virtual Stable are: top level and east wind. The top level debuted on grass around Turn 2 at Mark Casse and showed little, but something became clear when he shortened it to three-quarters of a mile on dirt at Oak Lawn on February 6th. He displayed a professional effort, identifying his target in a straight line and sprinting by 2 3/4 lengths. The fact that Casse started him in a two-turn race gives hope that he may be more than a sprinter. Easterly made a deep run in the first mile of his debut and fell to second place, but on February 7th at Gulfstream Park he won by two and three-quarters of a length over the 1 1/16th mile for trainer Brad Cox. Easterly needs to be faster to compete at stakes level, but he seems to have some ability. … 6 speed has won three consecutive races in Dubai, including a five-length victory in the UAE 2000 Guineas Presented by Longines. I’m a fan of Not This Time, a Kentucky stallion, but I’m skeptical about the quality of competition he’s won in Dubai, and trainer Bhupat Seemer recently announced a spectacular debut winner. monkey roommanufactured by Authentic.
cool down
1. Strategic risks
While Silent Tactic was a pleasant surprise for owner John Oxley and trainer Mark Kass in the $1 million Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park on February 6, Strategic Risk left the race on the other end of the spectrum with the same owner and trainer duo wondering what went wrong with the 10-year-old.th– Do the finishing touches. The Noble Bird colt had won the FTBOA Florida Sires in Reality Stakes and the $250,000 Smarty Jones Stakes, the latter of which finished 10 and a half lengths behind Silent Tactic at the same track in Oak Lawn entering the Southwest at a distance of 1 1/16 miles. Kass speculated that perhaps bad weather and a break in his training routine affected Strategic Risk’s performance. “I really don’t know what happened to him,” Kass said. “As you watch, he looks like he’s in pain. Maybe that little bit of time off is bothering him more than the others. I’m going to run back at level.” [Stakes March 1] As long as he’s fine. ”
2. Incredivolt
When I entered the Holy Bull Stakes, I thought the race was going to be a battle between Incredivolt and Neary. Winner Neary’s assessment was spot on, but he finished last of six horses at Holy Bull at Gulfstream Park on January 31, whiffing Incredibold, who lost by 25 and a quarter lengths. I’m hopeful that it was a bad race for a 3-year-old horse who showed real talent. The stallion Borto d’Oro won the mile by two lengths at Churchill Downs on September 28th, and also scored by one 3/4 length in the Grade 3 Street Sense S, so he entered this race with high expectations. Incredibold finished strong on Street Sense over the final quarter mile in 24.56 seconds and the final furlong in 12.47 seconds on the dirt track where the Kentucky Derby is held. That’s why I was optimistic about his chances of becoming an elite 3-year-old. Although Holy Bull has taken a step back, it’s important to remember that animal progress is not linear. Perhaps he needed the race or, as trainer Riley Mott surmised on FanDuel TV, didn’t care about Gulfstream’s surface.
3. Desert Gate
The Omaha Beach colt, trained by Bob Baffert, returned from a four-month break to make his 3-year-old debut in the G3 Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita Park on February 7th, where he was favored as the No. 1 favorite among the seven-horse field with a record of 6 wins and 5 losses. Stablemate Plutarch defeated American Pharoah Stakes winner Intrepid by 3/4 length. Desert Gate lost by four lengths to fourth-place finisher Robert B. Lewis, but while it was a disappointing loss, it was by no means a devastating loss. I had high hopes for last year’s Best Pulse Stakes winner and runner-up in the Del Mar Futurity Stakes and American Pharoah Stakes, but he was returning from a long absence and there was a strong possibility that he wasn’t fully cranked up. Still, it’s concerning that Desert Gate hasn’t been able to get the job done despite competing in the past three stakes races. It may not be as good as the best in the 3-year-old category.
Note: The biggest news outside of the Derby trail race since last time was the injury to the reigning champion 2-year-old colt. Ted Nophy As a result, he will be unable to compete in the 2026 Triple Crown race. Undefeated in four races, the FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by TAA winner is aiming to make a comeback this summer. There is a big gap in the fate of the 2026 Kentucky Derby. …The three first-time winning horses performed below expectations in their stakes debuts. D code In the Southwest Stakes, gunner In the Holy Bull Stakes, confession In Sam F. Davis S. All three had stepped up in terms of the quality of their competition, extending from sprints to two-turn races. To me, D’code appears to be a very good sprinter.