ATP Adelaide semi-finals

Mashack – Paul: January 16, 2026 03:30 CEST
H2H: 2-1

Tomas Machak has won three of his last five matches. Machak is yet to drop a set this week in Adelaide. In the opening match, Machak defeated Duckworth in straight sets. He provided two break points and made the save. In the second round, Harris had no chance against the Czech, but the latter had the upper hand on returns. Munar was doing well, but Macak easily defeated him in straight sets. Machac provided and saved four breakpoints. This is his second appearance in Adelaide.

Tommy Paul has won three of his past five matches. In the season opener in Brisbane, Paul lost to Mpesi Pericad in a close three-set match. Last season in Adelaide, the American lost to Auger-Aliassime in the semi-finals in a close three-set battle. This week, Paul defeated Opelka in straight sets in the opening round. He served well and gave no break points. In the quarterfinals, Paul defeated Vukic in straight sets. The Americans had the upper hand from start to finish.

best bet

Bookmakers say Macak is the underdog in this matchup, but we don’t think so. He dominated this week, only losing serve once all week. He had a 2-1 lead in head-to-head matches with Paul, and the battles were always close. We expect him to keep this game close.

Having said that, It’s a worthwhile bet that Machak will cover the match handicap.

Value Bet/Best Odds: Tomas Machac +2.5 Game Handicap @1.83 @bet365

Davidovich Fokina – Humbert: January 16, 2026 09:00 CEST
H2H: 3-2

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina has won three of his last five matches. This week in Adelaide, the Spaniard defeated Hijikata in straight sets in his first match. He was dominant from start to finish. In the second round, the Spaniard defeated Bashro in straight sets. Except for dropping his serve once, he showed overwhelming strength throughout the match. Last season in Adelaide, Davidovich Fokina lost in the second round to Korda in straight sets. This is his second appearance in Adelaide.

Hugo Humbert has won four of his last five matches. This will be his second appearance in Adelaide and his first in the main event. In the opening match, the Frenchman defeated Atmane in straight sets, as expected. He provided three break points and made saves. Humbert defeated Greek Pool in straight sets in the second round. The Frenchman came from behind 2-4 in the first set. His easiest challenge was in the quarterfinals against Shevchenko. Humbert won in straight sets within an hour. He saved all three breakpoints he provided.

best bet

According to the bookmakers, this will be a 50-50 matchup, but we don’t think so. Humbert is a better hard court player than Davidovich Fokina. The Frenchman likes to play on fast courts and has won three solid matches this week. I hope Humbert handles the pressure well and wins.

Having said that, Humbert’s victory is a worthwhile gamble.

Value bet/best odds: Hugo Humbert wins @1.73 @bet365

Main photo credit: Aaron Doster-Imagn Images