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NBA—Houston Rockets vs. Miami Heat, Feb. 28, 3:30 p.m. ET

Houston (30-21) will travel to the Sunshine State, and recent market prices suggest the Rockets are the favorites by roughly 4-5 points, with a total score in the range of 213-215 points, shaped by the recent scoring trends of both teams. Miami (31-29) hovers around the even underdog money line, while Houston has put up strong offensive numbers with a recent stretch.

Offensively, Kevin Durant remained Houston’s mainstay, averaging around 25-26 points per game and an offseason high of 40 points, while Jabari Smith Jr. provided secondary scoring punch and efficiency from deep. Miami leads the Heat in rebounding and counters with Bam Adebayo, a tough inside presence on both ends. Tyler Herro and Nicholas Powell are two reliable scoring options if Miami can get into a positive rhythm.

Injury news could be a factor. The Rockets have major rotation issues, with Armen Thompson (quad) listed on the day-to-day list, Ja’Sean Tate out with a knee issue, and Fred VanVleet remaining out for an extended period of time. Miami’s Nikola Jovic suffers from back tightness. These availability concerns can impact rotations and point totals, making a team’s total props and player lines more appealing to bettors who prefer specific matchups rather than just the spread.

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