A new analysis proves there remains a measurable chance that asteroid 2024 YR4 will hit the moon in December 2032.
if impact When it occurs, it produces a flash bright enough to be seen from Earth, causing effects far greater than a single burst of light.
asteroid timing
Current orbit calculations place the 200-foot-wide (60-meter-wide) asteroid’s chance of impact within a narrow window of December 22, 2032, as it passes through the Earth-Moon system.
By propagating thousands of possible trajectories, Yifei Jiao Tsinghua University And her colleagues have shown that the Earth is no longer in danger. However, the moon remains exposed.
their result We limit the remaining impact probability to about 4.3 percent, concentrating the potential impact zone across a defined swath of the moon’s terrain.
This constrained scenario turns a once theoretical hazard into a timed celestial event that astronomers can prepare to monitor.
An explosion as bright as Venus
Upon collision, the moon could flare with a point of light as bright as Venus in the night sky.
The glow is caused by impact energy that rapidly heats rocks and dust, emitting visible light. preprint I will explain.
The burst may be noticeable to an unaided eye observer for about 10 seconds, but can be tracked with a telescope for several minutes.
Beyond the Pacific Rim, observers in East Asia, Oceania, Hawaii, and western North America will get the best results.
heat after flash
Minutes after the flash, some of the molten rock continues to glow with infrared light, invisible light.
As the melt cools from about 3,100°F (1,700°C), its heat weakens and the size and distribution of craters is mapped. rock texture.
If the warmth lasts long enough, orbiters and large ground-based telescopes could spend hours monitoring the cooling, not just fleeting flashes.
Those heat readings will help scientists test how they work. of the moon The soil stores heat and stores important information for future landers.
Measuring lunar earthquakes
The impact that exceeds light and heat is shake The moon is hard enough to cause earthquakes near magnitude 5.
Seismic waves travel through the Earth’s crust and could be picked up by seismometers, which are sensors that record ground shaking.
Since there is no ocean or weather noise on the Moon, the signal could continue to sound for a long time after the impact.
Clear records from multiple observatories will allow researchers to explore hidden layers of the moon’s interior, far from craters.
new moon crater
The asteroid impact will carve out a crater on the moon’s surface that spans about 0.8 kilometers.
An impact this powerful would release an explosive force equivalent to millions of tons of TNT, liquefying rock at the crash site.
Some of the material may be blown outward as ejecta (rocks blown outward by the impact), and some may escape the influence of the moon’s gravity.
These new scars help adjust the impact model, but they also add new debris to the surrounding space. earth.
Risk to satellites from asteroids
In the maximum scenario, the amount of rock spilled could total about 220 million pounds (about 100,000 tons), enough to scatter high-velocity debris into space.
Once the debris leaves the moon, it could cross the satellite’s path, where a pebble could damage its hardware.
Most debris misses Earth completely, but some debris can orbit Earth for months before drifting away.
Tracking that cloud could also uncover a rock several feet wide that could be reported as a new asteroid in the survey.
Meteor on the schedule
Days after the lunar impact, small pieces of debris may begin to reach Earth’s atmosphere and burn up as meteors.
The newspaper’s computer analysis suggests the first arrivals could arrive within two to eight days, depending on the direction of the launch.
Even if the debris is small, dense explosions can increase the risk for spacecraft that cannot avoid sudden splashes.
In the long term, the same stream of ejecta could cause a meteor explosion any time within the next 100 years.
moon meteorite on earth
Some of the larger chunks may survive the fall and land as meteorites of known lunar origin.
When rocks collide with the moon, the impact can throw deeper material upwards, before being reformed by heat and shock.
The recovered debris will allow the lab to compare the crater’s chemistry with orbital maps and link remote images with samples it has on hand.
As deliveries span the globe, rapid recovery teams require good timing and reliable tracking.
Plan your impact
After a telescope first discovered the asteroid on December 27, 2024, the European Space Agency (ESA) They described it as about 200 feet (60 meters) in diameter and tracked it down.
The asteroid is currently too faint to track, so planners will have to wait until June 2028 when it will next be clearly visible.
A coordinated network can rehearse pointing and timestamping, and lunar missions can prepare sensors for light, heat, and shaking.
“This is a very rare event for an asteroid.” big It could hit the moon,” said Richard Moisle, director of ESA’s Planetary Defense Agency.
Immediate next steps
A single impact on the moon produces light, heat, vibrations, and debris, allowing scientists to freeze time and perform unusual experiments.
Until new observations make it possible again, space agencies can practice rapid adjustments and refine models to protect future missions.
This research arXiv.
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