The impending U.S. Supreme Court ruling on the legality of many of President Donald Trump’s tariffs has businesses on the lookout for possible refunds, but logistics experts say the ruling could also quickly impact trade volumes with the U.S. ahead of the Lunar New Year.

The U.S. freight industry is in a freight slump due to a decline in container volumes after companies moved goods forward to cushion the impact of tariffs. The advance of cargo shipments has changed the traditional peak season for shipping containers in 2025.

If the Supreme Court rules the tariffs implemented under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act illegal, imports into the U.S. could increase as companies gain cash-strength confidence and seek an opportunity to buffer inventories ahead of the Trump administration’s revised tariff plans. Officials said they were prepared to meet existing trade goals.

“Imports will definitely increase once IEPPA tariffs are removed from all imports,” said Paul Brasher, vice president of global supply chain at ITS Logistics. “This is especially true for products that have recently been sourced from high-tariff countries,” he said.

The Supreme Court’s decision could be announced as early as Wednesday at 10 a.m. Eastern Time.

While President Trump’s trade war has not slowed down China’s trade with other countries, it has only reported a record $1.2 trillion trade surplus, while global ocean container volumes tracked by SONAR for the United States are down 14% year over year. The decline in trade with China was the most severe, as tariff hikes forced some companies to operate with reduced inventories. Project 44’s January Tariff Report estimates that in 2025, U.S. imports from China will decline by 28% from the previous year, and exports to China will decline by 38%. “This has been one of the sharpest bilateral trade contractions in recent history,” Project 44 noted in its report.

The Supreme Court’s decision comes at the most important time of the year for supply chain management decisions within companies, as factories in China will be closed for a month in February for the Lunar New Year. Spring and summer freight shipping orders must be placed early to ensure product leaves the factory in time for delivery to the United States. To avoid a slowdown in production of imported goods, companies typically issue manufacturing orders for the Lunar New Year in late December or early January. According to SEKO Logistics, production slowdowns will begin three to four weeks before Lunar New Year, when employees begin leaving factories to go home.

This year’s Lunar New Year will be from February 17th to March 3rd.

Brian Burke, chief commercial officer at SEKO Logistics, said: “If the Supreme Court rules the tariffs illegal, it will increase booking demand and have an absolute impact on orders for three reasons.” “Firstly, the timing of the Lunar New Year holiday. Second, while we fully expect other tariff provisions to be used, there are restrictions and implementation schedules that will encourage businesses to act ‘with time’ again. Thirdly, we expect future cash injections to fund these purchases.”

If the tariff is determined to be illegal, the International Trade Court will have legal authority If you request a refund, it will be paid to the U.S. importer, who retains jurisdiction over the refund claim during the two-year statute of limitations period. At the same time, the Trump administration said it already plans to use other legal provisions to enforce the tariffs if the Supreme Court rules them invalid.

Small businesses will be expected to act first. Eytan Buchman, CMO of Freightos, says, “Small businesses need to start ordering earlier than larger companies because they have better plans and fewer staff.” “Tariffs are killing them because there is no stability in their supply chain plans. There is too much uncertainty.”

Based on that analysis, 5 years of Lunar New Year order data, Freight expects orders from small businesses to surge soon after a ruling against President Trump’s tariffs.

“Typically, there is a big spike in importer activity three to four weeks before Lunar New Year,” Bachman said. “This means small and medium-sized businesses in the U.S. have until January 20th to plan their shipments.”

a recent research Freightos’ findings show that not all small and medium-sized businesses will necessarily start sourcing from China. Defendants said that if the tariffs are ruled illegal by the Supreme Court, they will expand their sourcing base around the world and evaluate high-quality, low-cost suppliers in new regions without the cost penalties associated with the tariffs. Some said they would move production back to China.

Additional orders from China did not spike in November and December, according to a recent CNBC Supply Chain Survey. trade truce The deal between the two countries was announced on October 30, but despite logistics managers’ predictions, it could result in a surge in new orders. The current situation of low inventories within the US supply chain is clearly visible in the post-holiday trade statistics. Warehouse stock is Index for logistics managers Warehouse inventory shows a significant month-on-month decrease of 17.4%.

“There’s a certain amount of defeatism right now because they feel like things are worse than they were a year ago. They want to be able to plan their supply chain,” Bachmann said.

However, not all parties in the supply chain are convinced that the court’s decision will be a significant driver of trade volumes to the United States. IMC Logistics told CNBC that trade volumes from Asia to the West Coast are strong and does not expect a decline in trade volumes as retailers, manufacturers and wholesalers aggressively restock after a strong holiday season. “Import volumes continued to show strength through the end of the year and into January 2026,” said Brian Kobza, IMC’s chief commercial officer.

Kobza added that the impact on container volume growth will not be seen for about 45 days due to the time it takes for an order to cross the ocean after it is placed. “Given the trade response in 2025, we do not believe this ruling will have an impact on total imports in any case,” he said.

“If the Supreme Court overturns the tariffs, there may be some small changes, but nothing dramatic seems likely to happen,” said Alan Baer, ​​CEO of OL USA.