Picking a wooden spoon winner this season may be harder than picking a Grand Final winner, but there is one team that is shaping up as an early contender for a possible freefall down the ladder.

Parramatta are favorites to reach the finals after a three-game winning streak ended last season, but is the hype justified?

Meanwhile, can the Raiders dust themselves off after a heartbreaking finals loss to Brisbane and prove that last year’s magical regular season was no fluke?

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Welcome to Buy or Sell on foxsports.com.au. There, the verdict is given on the big, fiery saga in the NRL.

Sea Eagle will continue to struggle after DCE

Unlike recent seasons, there is nothing remarkable about the wooden spoon.

The Knights and Titans may seem like obvious picks considering they were last and second-to-last in the standings, respectively, in 2025, but with no injuries and a new coach, they’re expected to move up this season.

One team being discussed as a possible spoon is the Sea Eagles.

Of course, Daley Cherry-Evans is no longer at the club and has been replaced by the talented Jamal Fogerty, but halfback is not a concern for this team.

There are several players in Manly’s current best 19 who may struggle to hold onto their first-year spots this year.

The forwards have many players nearing the end of their careers, and the backline, while talented, lacks depth. It’s probably not an exaggeration to say that one more injury to Tom Trbojevic will cause them to fall down the standings.

I can’t read all the trial games, but their performance in attack against the Bunnies was hard to watch.

Despite the buzz surrounding the 2026 season, Sea Eagles center Reuben Garrick is convinced his team has to do it.

“That’s the industry we’re in, because you have to win, and we keep winning,” he told Newswire.

“I know a lot of people are looking down on us, but here at Manly we are always the underdogs and we are never going to be able to win anything…I think this year we will prove people wrong.”

Verdict – buy

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Canberra will prove 2025 was no fluke

Last year was a magical regular season for the Green Machine.

Led by several youngsters who became stars of the game perhaps a little earlier than expected, and one of the NRL’s most skilled and potent forward packs, they finished at the top of the ladder and surprised everyone.

Unfortunately for the club’s passionate fan base, the club suffered a brutally unlucky defeat to eventual champions Brisbane in straight sets, before a disastrous second half in the semi-final against Cronulla sealed their fate.

Raiders fans are probably still sensitive about how the season ended, especially the 29-28 loss to the Broncos.

Coach Ricky Stewart appears to have taken some time to get over the shocking loss, as Phil Gould revealed a conversation the two had during the off-season.

“I hope I’m not talking outside of school here, but when I was invited to the Randwick race during the off-season and Ricky was there, he turned to me and said, ‘Can you believe that final?’ It was still eating at him,” Gould said on the Six Tackles with Gas podcast.

“I’ve never seen a team celebrate three times and then have that celebration taken away from them… That was crazy. They won that game, and if you win it, it changes the entire course of the season.”

The question for the Raiders is halfback.

Jamal Fogerty had a great season in 2025 and translated that into a huge new contract with Manly.

He will be replaced by the young and inexperienced Ethan Saunders, who is highly regarded and showed in limited freshman action last season that he is an exciting player.

Sanders will need to be very good for the Raiders to finish in the top four again, but the forward group of Young, Tappin, Papalii and Horsburgh will make his job much easier.

verdict – buy

Reed Mahoney will be one of the purchases of the year.

The Cowboys’ attack line is one of the strongest units in the NRL.

They’re fast. It’s flashy. They can score points at will and blow teams out of the park when things are going well.

Unfortunately for them, they need to execute on defense, and the Cowboys haven’t done that since losing to the Eels in the prelims in 2022.

The reason for their defensive struggles is that they lack a hard edge and have been accused of being soft at times.

That’s why signing Reid Mahoney could be a masterpiece by the Cowboys brass. He is the type of player the club desperately needed.

Mahoney is a crafty hooker on offense and a tackling machine on defense. But most importantly, he leads with his speed off the line and barks at middle forwards.

“If you look at this team, we have a strong, powerful middle, and when they get aggressive off the line, it’s scary,” Mahoney said. foxsports.com.au.

“So if we can do that, and if I can communicate and guide the guys defensively, it will really help us develop good habits and allow us to play the Cowboys style of football.”

“Since he’s been here, he’s really challenged everyone to get to his level and compete in his own way,” Cowboys star Tom Dearden said.

“He’s been very vocal about driving standards…I can’t praise him enough for what he brings.”

Signing Mahoney was a step toward a tactical change by coach Todd Payten.

In the season Payten won Coach of the Year, the Cowboys made it to the preliminary finals on the back of a limited defense.

According to fullback Scott Drinkwater, the aim appears to be to focus on ensuring they achieve what went well in 2022.

“We’re more focused on being a gritty, abrasive team that plays the game the right way by playing solid defense and doing well in all the little areas of effort that can turn into big moments. That’s where we’re trying to get to,” Drinkwater revealed to Fox League.

Mahoney may not challenge for individual honors such as the Dally M Medal, but his impact on the Cowboys will run deeper than what’s written on the stat sheet.

verdict – buy

Will the Broncos feel a Premiership hangover?

As the Broncos prepare to defend their title in 2026, there were some early hurdles.

First, the Payne Hearth bomb.

Haas will no doubt be hungry for back-to-back wins in the tournament after leaving the in-form Broncos, but it will be interesting to see how his impending departure will affect the current group.

Second, can the Broncos bounce back from their World Club Challenge loss?

History shows that it can be done. The Panthers did it twice.

Simply put, the start of 2026 was not ideal, but this aspect will not be derailed.

“I’m not too worried about them,” journalist Brent Reid told NRL360.

“Payne is the type of guy who is focused on competing now that he has made this decision, because he is so motivated to do it.

“You saw Reece Walsh in that WCC, he sparked the comeback in the second half…I’m not too worried about them.”

NRL 360 host Blaise Anasta added: “I agree that the Broncos are fine. I’m a little worried about the transfers and the rest, but I actually think they’re still going to have a very good season.”

verdict – sell

Is eel overhyped?

Parramatta played an easy-going brand of football at the back end when last season ended, leaving fans wanting more.

The year started poorly, with the Eels missing out on a place in the finals early on due to an injury to Mitch Moses, but they were able to finish the season with a bang, with some big gains in the second half, including wins over the Broncos, Roosters and Warriors.

So, despite a shaky start, the first year of the Jason Lyles era was considered to be a moderate success and definitely a step in the right direction.

The question is whether he can carry that momentum into this season.

It’s hard to imagine them not having this much quality on the flanks, especially in the back.

Moses and new signing Jonah Peze form a deadly half combo, Isaiah Iongi is one of the best young full-backs in the world and hooker Riley Smith is another young talent who played better than last season.

After a slow start, the forwards improved significantly in the second half of the season, with several big boys making impressive performances during trials.

The hype at this stage is justified as they have the talent to really push through in the finals.

Verdict – sell

Is the post-Vegas schedule fair?

The NRL utilizes advanced AI software to determine the times and locations of all 204 regular season matches in the competition.

For the most part, this is considered pretty fair, but let’s be honest, there’s probably at least one or two problems with it.

The post-Las Vegas schedule is one of them.

In 2024, the NRL’s first year in Vegas, the four teams that made it through – the Broncos, Rabbitohs, Roosters and Sea Eagles – were all set to play another Vegas team in the next round.

For example, the two games in Las Vegas that year were Broncos vs. Roosters and South vs. Sea Eagles. In the second round, the Broncos faced South and the Roosters faced Manly.

Seems fair, but for some reason the NRL changed course the following year.

In 2025, the Raiders, Warriors, Sharks and Panthers were the second wave of Las Vegas teams, but instead of playing each other in the second round, poor old Cronulla had to travel to Townsville to play the Cowboys.

That week, the Warriors and Raiders were rewarded with home games, but Canberra faced a dreadful draw that included away games in Sydney (R3), Townsville (R4) and Darwin (R6).

This year, the Cowboys will have to travel to Sydney in the second round to play the Tigers at Leichhardt Oval on a bye, while the Knights are away (Manly), the Dragons are home and the Bulldogs are a bye.

These Las Vegas teams will have the next week off to recover from a hectic overseas trip, and it’s understood that no matter how a draw is decided, it will never be a perfect result, so this is a minor issue, but perhaps all touring teams should be given some leeway in their schedules.