chris mason
Political Editor, based in Manchester

The drama surrounding this by-election began months ago, when we didn’t even know when or where it would be held.

The question of when and how the Mayor of Greater Manchester, Andy Burnham, would return to Westminster has not been far from the political conversation since at least last summer.

A by-election in the north-west of England was thought to be an ideal opening for Burnham, but the Prime Minister would only have to rely on Labour’s bureaucratic constraints to scuttle his ambitions to stand as a Labor candidate in Gorton and Denton.

This is the second Westminster by-election since the general election.

Reform won its first election in May last year, narrowly defeating Labor in Runcorn and Helsby, Cheshire.

It was the 10th consecutive Westminster by-election in which a party lost a seat from the one previously holding it.

This is another example of the fluidity and unpredictability of current politics.

Of course, as with any by-election, the math doesn’t change much at Westminster. Each seat is just one seat out of 650.

But they change the mood and the political climate.

And whatever the outcome in Gorton and Denton, this will be a newsy by-election. Many on both sides believe it could be a very tense three-way race between Labor, the Reform Party and the Greens.

If Labor wins even a narrow victory, it would be a huge moral boost for Sir Keir Starmer, who has had a particularly difficult start to 2026. He will be able to point to his party’s ability to defeat the Reform Party and the Greens and win Greater Manchester without having Andy Burnham, known as the King of the North, as its candidate.

If Reform Britain wins, it will use the result to underline its current political momentum. Similarly, even if you’re a few miles down the list, a loss could signal the limits of your momentum.

You may remember last autumn’s by-election for the Caerphilly seat in the Welsh Assembly, where Plaid Cymru narrowly missed out on winning over the majority of voters who did not want to support Reform. If the anti-reform vote is more evenly divided in tonight’s election campaign, there is a chance he could split the center and win.

The most newsworthy result would be a victory for the Greens in England and Wales. If they win the seat, it will be their first victory in a parliamentary by-election. Unlike the other players, they may still be able to afford to smile despite losing, considering they were clearly competitive in this contest.

And if Labor doesn’t win, it will be awkward for the Reformers if they win, and it will probably be doubly awkward for the Greens. This is because it highlights that the Labor Party is caught between two opposition groups, the right-wing and the left-wing rebel factions.

Let’s see how things unfold in the next few hours – the night is still young.