The Baseball Writers Association of America Hall of Fame voting results will be announced Tuesday at 6 p.m. ET, with two center fielders in the 2026 selection set to join Jeff Kent, who was selected in December by the Modern Era Committee.

1 year agoI wrote about the 2025 Hall of Fame candidates that “this year’s voting numbers are likely the weakest since the early 2000s.” Well, the 2026 version will probably be even weaker. The 2025 ballot included at least newcomers Ichiro Suzuki and CC Sabathia. who was chosen With Billy Wagner. Pitcher Cole Hamels is the only rookie on the ballot in 2026 with a career WAR of 50 or more.

Let’s look at it one way. The 2026 poll includes 27 players worth a total of 1,282 WAR, 11 of whom have career WAR greater than 50. There were 37 candidates on the 2013 ballot. The top 27 players that year represented a combined WAR of 1,672, including 16 players with career WAR over 50.

The kicker: Nobody made it that year. However, the 10 players selected on that ballot were subsequently elected to the Hall of Fame. And while only Carlos Beltran and Andruw Jones have a chance of making it this year, there will likely be some future Hall of Famers as well, despite the relative lack of star power on this ballot.

With general guidelines in mind, here are some highlights from Tuesday’s announcement results:

• A player must receive 75% of the votes on the ballot (not rounded up) to be selected.

• A player needs 5% to remain on the ballot.

• Writers can vote for up to 10 players.

• A player can remain on the ballot for 10 years.

Will Beltran and Jones fit in?

Last year, Beltran won 70.3% of the vote in his third year, while Jones won 66.2% in his eighth year. According to Ryan Thibodeau’s Hall of Fame Tracker, Mr. Beltran has received 89.2% of the published ballots and Mr. Jones has received 83.5%. That doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll pass. Last year, Mr. Beltran was at just over 80% in pre-release polls, so he was down 10 percentage points when the final results came in, while Mr. Jones was at 72.4%, down about 6 percentage points. Although it looks good, it could still be a stressful night for both of you.

One thing to note is that Hall could use more center fielders. Looking at the Hall of Famers with the highest career value since 1960, center field is tied with designated hitter for the least common position (Frank Thomas is counted as a first baseman). Obviously starting pitchers have the highest numbers, but look at the breakdown of position players.

Catcher: 7
First base: 11
Second base: 7
Third base: 8
Shortstop: 7
Left field: 7
Mid-level: 4
Right fielder: 12
Long distance: 4

Four center fielders: Willie Mays, Andre Dawson (though he started many games in right field, two-thirds of his career value was in center field), Kirby Puckett, and Ken Griffey. That’s not to say that Hall of Famers have to be distributed evenly to each position, but it’s a little frustrating that voters are so tough on center fielders but so favorable to relievers (nine are selected from that group). Recent modern era voting was basically designed to elect Dale Murphy – and he still I couldn’t get in.

Beltran is a strong candidate for the Hall of Fame. His career WAR of 70.0 ranks fourth among center fielders since 1960, behind Mays. mike trout And Griffey. Beltran’s traditional numbers are also impressive, with 435 home runs, 2,725 hits, and 1,587 RBIs. It’s like a Hall of Fame player. Jones is Less than a slam dunk His WAR of 62.7, which relies heavily on his defensive metrics, is still seventh among center fielders since 1960 (counting Reggie Smith as a right fielder).

What will become of Chase Utley?

Attlee has the third-highest repeat vote rate in the 2025 poll, at 39.8%. The public vote was 67.9%, a significant increase from last year’s pre-announcement vote rate of 51.6%. This is only his third year on the ballot, so momentum looks positive. Utley is similar to Todd Helton, who was elected on the sixth ballot in 2024. Both players have very high peak values, with Helton earning 37.5 of his 61.8 career WAR from 2000 to 2004 and Utley 39.7 of his 64.6 career WAR from 2005 to 2009.

Utley’s career also stands in contrast to recently selected second baseman Kent.

Utley: .275/.358/.465, 259 HR, 1,025 RBI, 1,885 H, 117 OPS+, 64.6 WAR
Kent: .290/.356/.500, 377 HR, 1,518 RBI, 2,461 H, 123 OPS+, 55.4 WAR

Utley had higher peak values ​​and better defensive metrics (though not necessarily a better defensive reputation), while Kent had longer longevity and better counting statistics (and won the MVP award, which Utley missed out on). Utley v. Kent reflects the overall issues that Hall of Fame voters must consider. In other words, do you prefer a player with a higher max value, a player with Utley’s above-average 41 wins to Kent’s 26, or a player who simply plays longer? Historically, the BBWAA values ​​career length over peak value. Utley will be a good test to see if we see further change in the high peak performance, or at least an increase in valuation.

How will Cole Hamels fare in his first year on the ballot?

This year, in addition to Utley, fellow 2008 World Series star Hamels, who won the National League Championship Series and World Series MVP honors in the 2008 World Series, is also on the ballot. philadelphia phillies. Hamels has 163 career wins and has never won a Cy Young Award, but his career pitching WAR is 57.9. That’s pretty close to Sabathia’s total of 61.8, and Sabathia won on his first ballot. Hamels’ ERA is better adjusted (123 vs. 116). The big difference, of course, is in the wins column: Sabathia has 251 wins.

Hamels and Felix Hernandez are back on the ballot for a second time and could be considered part of a new generation of pitchers for voters to consider. True, they have fewer innings and fewer wins than traditional Hall of Fame starting pitchers (King Felix has 169 wins). But perhaps the standard for starters who debuted in the past two decades has to change. Otherwise, the Hall would not be able to accommodate nearly an entire generation of starting pitchers (with the exception of a few obvious candidates). clayton kershaw, Justin Verlander, max scherzer and Zack Greinke among them). Mr. Hernandez received 20.6% of the vote last year, which is not a strong starting point, but it does not mean he will never win. I mentioned earlier that Mr. Helton won his sixth year after starting his first year at 16.5%.

How strong is Andy Pettit and Mark Buhl’s case?

I ran this comparison last year.

Sabathia: 251-161, 61.8 WAR, 3,577 IP, 3.74 ERA, 116 ERA+
Pettit: 256-153, 60.7 WAR, 3,316 IP, 3.85 ERA, 117 ERA+
Buhle: 214-160, WAR 60.0, IP 3,283, ERA 3.81, ERA 117+

Although Buhle won 15 games in his final season, he didn’t win that many games and could have easily won more games with persistence. Sabathia went 46-46 with a 4.21 ERA and 8.6 WAR over his final five seasons, so it’s not like he added a lot of value to get extra wins. Buhle also couldn’t afford to pitch with the Yankees and their powerful batting lineup, but he won the World Series with the White Sox in 2005. If there’s an argument that Sabathia had a higher peak value, well, check out his above-average career wins.

Sabathia: 28.2
Pettit: 29.8
Buhle: 29.3

In 2025, Pettit won just 27.9% of the vote, compared to 11.4% for Buhle. For comparison, Hamels’ WAA was 35.9 and Hernandez’s was 24.5.

Who else could get a shot in the future?

Dustin Pedroia and David Wright had Hall of Fame aspirations before injuries cut their careers short. Pedroia still finished with a career WAR of 51.8 and Wright 49.1, making him at least a likely Hall candidate. Unfortunately, both ended up with fewer than 2,000 hits in their career. That total isn’t typically a springboard for potential Hall of Famers since World War II, but in recent years the special committee has selected the likes of Dick Allen, Tony Oliva and Gil Hodges, each of whom had less than 2,000 hits. If Jones enters the game with 1,933 hits, he will become the first position player to be selected by the BBWAA with fewer than 2,000 hits since Ralph Kiner in 1975.

Mr. Pedroia received 11.9% of the vote in his first year in office, while Mr. Wright received 8.1% in his second year. They’re a Hall of Fame favorite at this point, but a combination of poor voting numbers and perhaps a change in emphasis to peak value could give them some momentum. If Jones and Utley are ultimately selected, they could break the BBWAA’s 2,000-hit barrier and help Pedroia and Wright’s futures. (Buster Posey He will be on the ballot next year, but he achieved 1,500 hits).

What about A-Rod and Manny?

Finally, Alex Rodriguez and Manny Ramirez. This will be Rodriguez’s fifth time and Ramirez’s last. Rodriguez recently told The Athletic that he is “divorced” from the idea of ​​being inducted into the Hall of Fame. It probably will, as it received 37% of the vote last year. Barry Bonds reached 66% in his final year and Roger Clemens reached 65%, but perhaps Rodriguez will have a chance as voters become younger and more tolerant. But Mr. Clemens and Mr. Bonds also had support of more than 50% in their fifth year. Bonds and Clemens also failed to gain support in the recent Contemporary Era poll that selected Kent.