Aerosol deposition on the surface after 2.5 l/s emission for 5 Mars years and cessation for 15 Mars years. The distribution is relatively uniform, with more deposition at lower elevations, higher latitudes, and closer to the release site (marked by a black cross). Including radiation cloud feedback makes little difference to the deposition. — astro-ph.EP
A recent paper by Ansari et al. (2024, Science Advances 10, eadn4650) and Richardson et al. (2025, arXiv eprint 2504.01455) suggested that global warming of the Martian surface by 35 K (“terraforming”) to maintain habitat in areas above the melting point of water could be achieved by injection of artificial aerosols into the Martian atmosphere.
Using the MarsWRF 3D global climate model, we investigate how anthropogenic warming of Mars through man-made aerosol emissions will affect the planet’s water cycle and the distribution of major surface ice reservoirs. Within the framework of our model, every 20 K of global warming increases the water vapor content in the atmosphere by a factor of 10 due to sublimation of H2O ice from the polar cap.
This increases the efficacy of cloud radiative feedbacks, causing nocturnal warming (about 5–10 K) at low latitudes, but daytime cooling (up to 40 K) at mid-latitudes in winter. Water moves from the edge of the polar cap to the south polar cap, slightly destabilizing shallow ground ice in the northern mid-latitudes. As a result, seasonal sublimation of H2O ice from Antarctica increases its impact on the global water cycle.
These changes persist on Mars for at least several decades after the atmosphere is no longer loaded with man-made aerosols. Our model is limited by gaps in knowledge about the current Martian weather and climate and the microphysics and radiation properties of candidate warming agents. Therefore, much more data is needed before warming Mars becomes a reality.
Ashwin S. Blood, Edwin S. Kite, Mark I. Richardson, Alexander Kling, Michael A. Mishna
Subject: Earth and Planetary Astrophysics (astro-ph.EP). Atmospheric and ocean physics (physics.ao-ph); Geophysics (physics.geo-ph)
Quote: arXiv:2603.01539 [astro-ph.EP] (or arXiv:2603.01539v1 [astro-ph.EP] for this version)
https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2603.01539
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Posted by: Ashwin Blood
[v1] Monday, March 2, 2026 07:12:12 UTC (6,948 KB)
https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.01539
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