what is jax’s planWhat about Smith Nijiba?

The Seattle Seahawks’ run game flourished in the second half of the season and into the postseason. However, it is still the passing game that captivates the offense. Almost all of it flows through Smith Nijiba.

The wide receivers have been playing off the charts this season. He plays every defensive coverage thoroughly and has transformed into a three-level threat. That means breaking man coverage right off the bat, showing fearlessness in attacking the middle of the field, and reaching out of deep coverage. Seahawks offensive coordinator Clint Kubiak directed Seattle’s entire offense through his star receivers. Smith and Nijiba line up anywhere: Out wide, in slot, backfield. By all appearances, he’s a nightmare opponent. His dominance means the Seahawks can reduce the number of receivers they send out on routes and keep an extra player to protect Sam Darnold. This season, only the Rams sent out all five eligible receivers at a lower rate than Seattle.

In the NFC Championship game against the Rams, Seattle’s rushing attack dried up after a explosive start. But they kept converting on third-and-long, either because of Smith Njiba’s catches or because of the gravity he created on other targets.

Solving the mystery of Smith and Ngiba will be the Patriots’ biggest challenge. They could double-team him and force the ball elsewhere, or they could incorporate their star cornerback Christian Gonzalez into one-on-one matchups and hope for the best.

Whose pass protection will work?

What’s the best way to stop an effective passing attack? Pressure the quarterback relentlessly. Darnold has struggled with the heat this season. The Seahawks’ passing game ranks 6th in EPA/dropbacks when there’s no pressure, but drops to 22nd when there is pressure.

New England’s best pass rushers, Milton Williams and Christian Barmore, play inside. Both were outstanding in the team’s playoff run, and coincidentally matched up well with Seattle’s two weakest areas. Seahawks right guard Anthony Bradford has struggled all season. On 10% of the plays, he looks like a Hall of Famer and opens up huge holes in the running game. The other 90%, he’s a mess. Bradford torpedoed his own linemen in the run game, allowing the highest pressure rate of any starting lineman in this year’s Super Bowl. Next to Bradford is center Jalen Sandel, who hasn’t looked the same since returning from a midseason injury.

If the Patriots can exploit Seattle’s weaknesses and set up a one-on-one matchup, life will be unpleasant for Darnold. Darnold plays erratically when he’s uncomfortable. To play against more talented teams, the Patriots need to force turnovers. And the most obvious path to that is to attack Bradford and Sandel in isolation.

But the Patriots have their own protection issues. On the left side of their line are two rookies: tackle Will Campbell and guard Jared Wilson. Each looked shaky in the playoffs. If there’s a compromise on the line, there’s no team you’d rather play against than the Seahawks.

Seattle’s pass rush is relentless. It has high-end quality and depth. The Seahawks had six different players record at least 35 pressures this year, and no other team had more than four players reach that total. They don’t blitz much, but when they do they are the most effective blitzing team in the NFL. There will be no off reps for the Pats rookie.

The offense can avoid having one sinkhole along the offensive line. Working with two people is difficult. And it’s nearly impossible to work around two people next to each other — just ask last year’s Chiefs about that. Drake Maye has been especially vulnerable to pressure in the postseason, with his sack rate rising to an astonishing 48% from pressure. The Patriots quarterback also has a bad case of fumble inflammation. Sacks (and turnovers) kill drives, and drives will be very expensive on Sunday.

Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels will need to find a solution. The plan is to keep an extra player in the backfield to help the rookies during the playoffs. But that would detract from the menu of plays he can make in the passing game, and it would come at the hands of a Seahawks unit that fills the field with bodies in coverage.

All eyes will be on the matchup between Campbell and DeMarcus Lawrence, the best pass rusher on the field. The Seahawks are running him up front, but will likely try to match him up with Campbell as often as possible. If Campbell can contain Seattle’s best edge rusher, New England will have a chance to move the ball. If not, Lawrence will devastate the Patriots.

Can the Patriots find an explosive play?

The Patriots led the NFL in explosive play rate during the regular season, with 15.8% of their plays rushing for 10 or more yards or passing for 15 or more yards. That’s largely due to May’s talent. He is a master at throwing dynamite on the field and is also a capable scrambler. However, he is faced with a unit that refuses to grant permission for the chunkyard. Seattle’s defensive principle is to force quick, short throws before flying downhill to cause carnage. And they perform better than any defense in recent memory.

It’s going to be tough to get over the Seahawks cornerback’s head. The Rams found a way out in the NFC Championship Game by turning their attention to cornerback Tarik Uhlen. Tarik Uhlen is a hyperactive player who looks for big plays when he’s not playing. The Patriots will look to match up Woolen with their most reliable target, Stefon Diggs, as often as possible. And keep an eye out for the Patriots’ most exciting receiver, Kyle Williams. He only plays a few snaps per game, but is only on the field chasing big shots.

If he can’t do that, the Patriots will have to force a missed tackle. Maye will have to check the ball all the way to the running back against the Seahawks’ deep shell coverage. LaMondre Stephenson and Treveyon Henderson force a ton of missed tackles. If he can escape from Seattle’s defense, he will have a chance to turn a wild drive into a score.

coaching matchup

What makes this matchup so interesting is that it features strength upon strength across the field. The Seahawks do their best job running the ball from a heavier personnel group. That just happens to be where the Patriots do their best work. be late Rushing attack. The Patriots have an explosive, vertical offense. Seahawks shut down big plays.

The difference between the two teams will be close. Who can best handle this opportunity? Who makes the right calls on fourth downs? Who makes the right adjustments on the fly when pass protection is crumbling? Who saves some custom-made payoff plays for this opponent? Who is the kicker who is nervous about field goals?

Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel has been here before as a player. Mike McDonald, Seattle’s head honcho, has never coached in a Super Bowl. MacDonald is a master of defense and his unit improves significantly as the game progresses. He understands what is working and cuts out what isn’t. In the fourth quarter this year, the Seahawks defense leads the league in EPA/play, pressure rate, and sack rate. McDonald is able to decipher how the offense is trying to destroy his unit and come up with his own counters.

But he will be up against someone with a lot of experience. McDaniels has been part of six Super Bowl-winning staffs. His MO is saving things never seen before for the biggest moments possible. The Seahawks will need to be wary of unstable formations and trick plays as the Patriots look to steal possession.

Next is Vrabel. His calling cards are game management, aggression and knowledge of the rules. His team is the underdog. What does he have under his vest to keep it close until the end?

In modern times, Super Bowls usually end with one or two plays. The Seahawks have a kicking advantage, but the Patriots have a coach who has mastered the art of surviving one-score games. If the game becomes a close contest, the Patriots will have an advantage. But they need to find a way to limit exposure to the offensive line, which rarely works in the championship game.