LIBERTY COUNTY, Ga. — Greg Reyes came to this Walmart south of Savannah because of the low prices. He and his wife are very careful about their limited budget. She is retired and he is disabled. Their grocery list is always the same. But prices have changed.

“A year ago I was paying about $40, now I’m paying about $60,” Reyes said. Today he has chicken, turkey, and beef in his bag. Others simply had to be abolished. “I don’t buy ice cream anymore because it’s expensive,” Reyes says. “It’s a little sad, but it has to be done.”

The cost of living in the United States rose 2.7% in December from a year earlier, according to federal data on Tuesday. This is a steady slowdown after years of violent inflation, but it’s still painful. Last year, President Trump imposed steep tariffs on nearly all imports, sparking a global trade war. And the world continued to struggle with extreme weather events, from drought to heavy rain.

All of this will appear in your shopping cart.

Since 2018, NPR has tracked price This suburban Walmart superstore has dozens of products. Because Walmart is the most popular retailer in America and the largest in the world, it has the power to negotiate the lowest and most consistent prices with suppliers.

Here’s what we learned from our latest price research in December. (or skip analysis) to see NPR shopping cart details. )

Prices in NPR’s basket rose an average of 5% last year.

Almost half of the items on NPR’s shopping list will increase in price in 2025, including shrimp, Oreo cookies, Coca-Cola, and Dove soap. Some price increases, especially for items made in China and Vietnam, appear to be related to tariffs. Other price increases were related to weather events that affected the harvest of crops such as cocoa and coffee beans.

Just under a quarter of the items on NPR’s list are now cheaper, including eggs, milk and Cheerios. And the prices of many processed foods remained the same after years of rising prices.

As affordability became a top concern for Americans, big brands began to worry that shoppers would switch to store-brand competitors or skip some purchases altogether. To woo weary shoppers, Walmart offered more discounts than usual in December, according to an NPR investigation.

Some disclaimers about our methods:

• We looked at almost every aisle at this Walmart and came up with 114 items. (The complete table is below.) We focused on the price per unit, whether it’s 1 ounce of salsa or 1 square foot of aluminum foil, to account for possible changes in package size.
• NPR contacted producers of all listed items whose prices have changed. Most companies did not respond. A few participants, including Kikkoman and Campbell’s, pointed out that as a retailer, Walmart ultimately has control over the prices shoppers see on shelves.
• “We remain committed to providing our customers with low prices every day, and our goal is to have the lowest price on a basket of products over the long term,” a Walmart spokesperson said in a statement. For example, a store may extract business from suppliers or charge a little more for some items in order to sell other items at break-even prices or below cost.

Tariffs are hitting stores

With tariffs becoming the biggest retail story in 2025, signs of their impact inevitably appeared in Walmart aisles. Although it is difficult to pinpoint price increases due to tariffs with certainty, the throughline was notable.

The biggest increases in prices were for imports from countries with high tariffs. These include Walmart’s store brand Chinese paper folders (up 46%), Vietnamese swifish fillets (up 34%), Farberware’s Chinese plastic measuring spoons (up 19%) and Schwinn toddler bike helmets, once made in China and now made in Vietnam (up 18%).

Walmart, Farberware, and Schwinn did not comment on the impact of the tariffs on NPR, but several other companies did. Dole, whose canned pineapple from Southeast Asia has increased in price by 25%, cited weather-related crop shortages and tariffs on imports from the region.

Reynolds Wrap Co., whose aluminum foil prices rose 13%, cited “historic and continued cost increases over the past year due to tariffs, global supply pressures, rising energy costs and limited availability.” Much of the aluminum in the United States comes from Canada, and these imports are currently subject to a 50% tax.

Walmart warned in May of new tariffs. leading to price hikesas President Trump threatened to impose 145% tariffs on products from China. The White House has since suspended, changed, and even reversed parts of the trade plan. I mean, about groceries.. Walmart officials said by August. Tariff costs were rising ‘weekly’ However, the company was able to mitigate many of them. Walmart’s incoming CEO John Furner said in November that the tariffs would have “less of an impact” than he expected at the beginning of the year.

Climate change has disrupted many industries

Some of the items with the worst price increases include repeat offenders such as coffee, beef and chocolate. They were also affected by tariffs on products such as beef and coffee. I’m from Brazil — But the main culprit was the weather.

At this Walmart, prices for Maxwell House-ground Colombian coffee rose 46% in 2025, and breakfast K-cups rose 34%. Hershey’s and Lindt chocolate prices rose about 26%. A pound of ground beef has increased in price by 30%, and stores are now prominently displaying a cheaper option: a blend of ground beef and pork.

Due to the rising price of coffee beans, climate change It brought erratic rainfall patterns, flooding, and drought to agricultural land. Cacao harvest is also insufficient. 3 years in a row; West African farmers grow most of the world’s supply; abnormal weatherchanging climate patterns and diseases of old trees. And the supply of U.S. beef is reaching its limits. lowest in decadesincrease the price of cattle record high priceThe drought is also to blame.

In a statement, Kraft Heinz (which owns Maxwell House), Hershey and Lindt & Sprüngli cited unprecedented increases in prices for key raw materials, adding that they had absorbed or offset some of those costs.

Contraction continues in the laundry aisle

When inflation peaked after the coronavirus pandemic, some manufacturers quietly raised prices. Reduce product size — Shampoo, paper towels, chips, candy — charge the same or a little more. For example, in 2022, NPR’s Walmart visit revealed Dove bar soap has shrunk by a quarter of an ounce and its price has increased by a few cents. (Pigeon maker Unilever had no comment.)

Last month, NPR discovered one case of shrinkflation: the laundry detergent Tide. But the company insists it’s actually about efficiency.

Tide sales first spotted by NPR Less laundry detergent per bottle 2022: Liquid volume decreased from 100 ounces before the pandemic to 92 ounces, and prices increased by $1. Since then, the price has remained the same, but the content has shrunk to 84 ounces in 2024 and 80 ounces in December.

The label continually promised that it contained enough detergent for 64 loads of laundry.

Procter & Gamble, which makes Tide and Head & Shoulders shampoo (prices have increased about 18%), told NPR that both products have undergone “meaningful upgrades” over the past year. Specifically, Tide has made the “most significant upgrade to a liquid formulation in more than 20 years,” including “enhanced” levels of cleaning active ingredients and updated dosage regimens, according to the company.

“The result is superior cleaning performance at lower doses,” said a Procter & Gamble representative.

Good news! Some things are cheap

Eggs, which hit a record high earlier this year, have finally experienced their biggest price drop. persistent avian influenza. By December, the price of 12 eggs at Walmart had fallen 30%. Overproduction of dairy products also caused butter prices to fall by nearly 16%.

And as inflation-weary shoppers tighten up, brands have started doing something they don’t usually do: lowering prices. Last month, PepsiCo (maker of Lay’s, Cheetos, and Tostitos) lower prices to increase sales. General Mills (maker of Cheerios, Betty Crocker, and Annie’s) admits it too. Planned discount Approximately two-thirds of the products offered. NPR’s price research found that the price of Cheerios is 19% lower than it was a year ago.

A Walmart spokesperson also told NPR that the chain has added more discounts (or “rollbacks” in Walmart parlance) than in the past two years. The company listed 13,000 of those deals in the first three quarters of 2025, with about 2,000 of them becoming permanent price reductions.