Football betting experts Jones Knows provide insight on the entire midweek Premier League card.
Bournemouth vs Brentford, Tuesday 7.30pm
Bournemouth, led by Andoni Iraola, are committed to making things happen. They break through the third, bring in numbers in the middle, and encourage the midfielders to not only pass the ball around but also get into the shooting zone.
That tactical freedom brings out the best in Alex Scott.
Digging into the recent numbers, 11/10 with a Sky bet for the Scot to win two or more shots is attractive enough. He has cleared the line in seven of the last eight games, taking 24 shots in that span. That’s an average of three per game, which is well above what this market demands.
Scott has developed a real confidence and authority in the system. Scott looks like the next success story to come off Bournemouth’s conveyor belt based on his growing influence on the team.
Score Prediction: 1-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Alex Scott +2 Shots (11/10 with Sky Bet)
Everton vs. Burnley, Tuesday 7.30pm
A 3/1 with Sky Bet with Bashir Humphries on the card looks chunky when you line up the matchup to that side.
Humphries, who plays on the left flank for Burnley, has been registered in four of the last nine starts in that role. The accuracy rate is 44%. As of 3/1, the market is suggesting a value closer to 25%. There is a gap in our favor.
And factor in who he might be playing against.
Iliman Ndiayi is one of those attackers that defenders hate to play against. He has a sharp direct drive distance of 5 yards or more, and his body positioning is also skillful. Since the beginning of last season, he has been responsible for drawing 11 cards from opponents. This is a strong indicator of how often he forces defenders into final challenges or sarcastic pulls.
Score prediction: 3-1
Leeds v Sunderland, Tuesday 7.30pm
There’s a great foul-earning angle-based play here based on player habits.
A build bet with a sky bet – Gabriel Gudamundsson fouled at least twice and Granit Xhaka fouled at least once – rolls up to a very solid 13/8.
Gudmundsson is a foul-winning machine. He has been fouled at least once in each of his past 22 starts, averaging 2.1 fouls per 90 minutes. It is an elite area of this market. Look at Saturday’s match against Manchester City. He won with five fouls. That says everything about his role.
Then there’s Xhaka.
The cunning old fox’s daily life is still going strong. While he may not be able to cover as much ground as he once did, he has mastered the art of drawing soft fouls, stepping over opponents, using his body intelligently, and exaggerating enough to get a whistle.
He has been fouled at least once in seven of his last eight games and has collected 15 fouls in that run overall. This is a stable and reliable baseline. All he needs is one foul – and two from Gutmundsson.
Score prediction: 2-1
Wolves vs Liverpool, Tuesday 8:15pm – Play Super 6 here!
There’s a bit of blind faith in the market around Liverpool at the moment.
Prices are based on reputation and highest performance level, not on what the tactical matchup is like here. Wolves’ double chance (win or draw) at 13/8 with Sky Bet is worth serious consideration.
why? Because this is exactly the type of match that could make life awkward for Liverpool.
Arne Slott spoke openly about his team’s discomfort when faced with low blocks, teams that deny central space, slow the tempo and impose sterile domination. If Florian Wirths didn’t knit things between the lines, his creative incisions wouldn’t be as sharp.
Rob Edwards’ Wolves are becoming more difficult to break down precisely because of that approach. Their mission is to be compact, disciplined and willing to suffer without the ball.
Wolves pulled off this double chance play against strong outsiders Arsenal, Newcastle United and Aston Villa. They are happy to be underestimated.
Score prediction: 0-0
Aston Villa vs Chelsea, Wednesday 7:30pm – Play Super 6 here!
Aston Villa are a team to contend with now, with their engine room still broken. The absence of John McGinn, Youri Tielemans and Boubakar Kamara deprived them of control, progression and bite in one of the most important areas of the pitch.
Without that trio, Villa look stale. Possession is delayed. The press corps lacks cohesion. The intention is not there.
The results bear that out. One win from six games, including the defeat against Wolves, is even worse considering none of the opponents in those six games are in the Premier League’s top six. This isn’t a series of bad games, it’s a drop in performance level.
But what’s interesting is that Villa’s defensive process hasn’t completely collapsed. In those six games, they averaged just two goals per game. It’s not that it’s blown, it’s just that it lacks a spark.
Villa’s recent matches suggest that the scores have been low.
Chelsea’s win and Sky Bet’s 5/2 under 3.5 goals fits right in with these recent trends. This would allow for a 1-0, 2-0 or even 2-1 away win, but given Villa’s current limitations, this feels a much more realistic result than a goal fest.
Score prediction: 0-2
Brighton vs Arsenal, Wednesday 7.30pm – Play Super 6 here!
Pierrot Hincapie has been fouled at least once in nine of Arsenal’s last 10 games as a left-back, including his super-sub concession by Sky Bet. When a player is on track with a 90% strike rate in their role, it provides consistency that provides a great investment opportunity.
He’s a great salesman when it comes to fouls. Playing a position that you are learning on the job means you will find yourself in difficult situations when faced with pressure. His answer to them? Slams into the deck while in contact. That’s the modern way.
This ability to win fouls is also not new. Last season with Bayer Leverkusen, he committed 1.4 fouls per 90, a strong number even in a large sample size. Brighton rank third in the Premier League for fouls this season (12.6 per game), so Hincap should find plenty of opportunities to show off his foul-drawing skills. He has a 2/1 win with +2 fouls on Sky Bet.
Score prediction: 0-2
Fulham vs. West Ham, Wednesday 7:30pm – Play Super 6 here!
If you’re looking for a game that might let you loose midweek, you’ve come to the right place.
Fulham games are a goal-scoring attraction. 10 out of the last 11 have rewarded 2.5 or more backers. When their game stretches, it really stretches. And when that happens, the totals tend to follow.
That’s why the ‘both teams score at least 2.5 goals’ angle at evens on Sky Bet is particularly appealing.
West Ham arrive with a real attacking threat of their own. Crisencio Somerville and Jarrod Bowen provide pace and incision from wide and central areas, giving teams the ability to cause damage in transition and sustained pressure.
Over their last nine games, West Ham have scored 1.7 goals per game. The expected goals data is even stronger at 2.05 per game. These are not numbers that would be associated with a team that has risen in price and are likely to be relegated, but are creating chances at a rate of half of the top.
Score prediction: 2-2
Manchester City v Nottingham Forest, Wednesday 7.30pm – Play Super 6 here!
Manchester City have conceded more than 11 shots in each of their last seven Premier League games, averaging 12.8 shots per game. It’s not vintage Pep Guardiola control. However, the market is ignoring this trend.
Even the Wolves could hit the 11-shot mark for a good price. This tells us that this is not just a one-off, sudden event, but a pattern. City are giving up territory and when you give up territory in the Premier League you give up shots.
Over the last eight games, Nottingham Forest have averaged 18.5 shots per game. It’s a huge volume. They are playing bravely, pushing the numbers forward, and, importantly for this bet, pulling the trigger often. That’s what relegation pressure does to a team.
At Sky Bet’s rates, the odds of Forest winning over 11 shots at 10/11 are a very attractive bet.
Score prediction: 2-1
Newcastle vs Manchester United, Wednesday 8:15pm – Play Super 6 here!
Since returning from injury, Harry Maguire has added a street side to his game. He doesn’t just cluck his hooves or stand tall, he anticipates, positions himself, and invites contact in a way that has seen him pick up more fouls than his long-term averages suggest. Algorithms and markets have not yet caught up.
Numbers are persuasive. He has been fouled 11 times in the past seven games, which is a very average number for a centre-back. What’s even more impressive is that he’s reached the 2+ foul-earning line in four of those games, including the last three on the spin. This shows consistency, which is essential if you want to trust the line of form when betting.
It is natural to expect similar action against Newcastle. Maguire is drawn into the duel and asked to step into center field and cover the runners behind him. He will face a direct challenge, but with Newcastle’s pressing style, a foul is almost guaranteed.
Score Prediction: 1-2 | Jones Knows Best Bet: Harry Maguire +2 to win foul (5/2 at Sky Bet)
Tottenham vs Crystal Palace, Thursday 8pm
Tottenham’s new manager Igor Tudor likes his team to play aggressively. His stints at Lazio and Juventus saw a spike in fouls per 90, but that approach started here in north London. Since Tudor arrived, the Spurs have committed 31 fouls in two games.
Radu Dragusin took on the reckless task in the absence of Cristian Romero, who is suspended. He has seven fouls in the last three games. Calmness is required in Spurs’ situation, and Dragusin’s approach hasn’t necessarily helped calm nerves.
Dragusin’s position, temperament, and Tudor’s high-intensity defensive scheme all indicate he will pick up multiple fouls again.
At 7/2 on Sky Bet for Foul +2, the market doesn’t quite reflect how often Dragusin is forced into challenges and how they are made under Tudor’s system. Two or more fouls seems well within range in this matchup.