Scientists have developed a method to assess whether small changes in Earth’s gravity can be used to predict earthquakes. Their conclusion: “That’s not possible,” rejecting a hypothesis the researchers had hoped would provide better warning.

Earthquakes, one of the most mysterious natural disasters on Earth, are impossible to predict exactly where and when they occur. However, scientists know that the most destructive of these events occur. subduction zone, A region where tectonic plates frequently collide and move into each other.

These huge active zones are ideal places to look for phenomena that may be precursors to future earthquakes. To that end, previous research has suggested that satellite data could be key to issuing early warnings months in advance of a major earthquake, challenging the idea that major earthquakes cannot be predicted accurately in time.

Now, when we analyze the measurement results conducted by NASA, we find that grace and grace four The researchers said they found that relying on precursors formed from a single data point was largely ineffective. Wang Lei Study author and associate professor in civil, environmental, and geodetic engineering from The Ohio State University.

“Earthquake risk can be influenced by a variety of factors,” Wang said. “Also, many occur hundreds or hundreds of years apart, so just a few decades of up-to-date data is not enough to accurately predict them.” the study Recently presented at the annual general meeting of American Geophysical Union.

Scientists have gained insight into the processes that cause earthquakes, but providing advance notice of these unstable events is a challenge that has yet to be overcome. Instead, such programs work by detecting seismic waves that travel fast enough to alert people nearby, typically just seconds to minutes before the tremor arrives.

In contrast to seismic data collected by ground-based sensor instruments, the twin GRACE satellites monitor changes in Earth’s gravity and track the redistribution of large amounts of water in reservoirs on land, ice, and oceans. In this study, the team used the data to determine whether large-scale gravity changes were discovered hundreds of miles underground. 2010 8.8 Maule earthquake in Chile and 2011 9.0 Great Tohoku Earthquake.

After comprehensively analyzing and comparing multiple gravity data solutions with other anomalous GPS statistics around the world, the research team concluded that satellites are no better at predicting subsurface changes than other traditional geodetic technologies.

“If satellites can actually detect anomalous changes in Earth’s uniform gravity, it will revolutionize our understanding of earthquake mechanisms and shed new light on the science of prediction and mitigation,” Wang said. “But there’s no hard evidence of that.”

Even if satellites could reveal signs of future earthquakes, the method would likely not be useful on a global scale, especially in areas where there are clear earthquake mechanisms, he said. Damsis Weerasinghe is a co-author of the study and a doctoral student in the Department of Civil, Environmental, and Geodetic Engineering at The Ohio State University.

“Even if we modeled a known location, we couldn’t apply the results to another location because of the different shapes and materials in that environment,” Weerasinghe said. “It takes too long to discover and understand certain changes.”

To continue refining the method, the researchers plan to investigate whether the planet has any notable gravitational precursors. 8.8 earthquake It took place this year in Kamchatka, Russia. In the meantime, Wang hopes this research will help future scientists learn how to combine historical data with new advances in geodesy and environmental monitoring.

“The technology we have now is a little too early to accurately predict earthquakes days or even hours in advance,” Wang said. “That’s why we need passionate young people to jump into this field and make promising progress.”