The NFL Wild Card Round ends tonight. Houston Texans head to Acrizier Stadium to take on the Pittsburgh Steelers In the big AFC showdown. For those considering the player prop market, Bet365 eyes star wideout Nico Collins Score the first touchdown of the game at +600 odds.

Collins was a driving force in Houston’s passing attack all season, posting a 24.8% target share and serving as C.J. Stroud’s most reliable red zone threat. He finished the regular season with 10 receiving points and led the team in both receiving yards and touchdowns. Facing a Steelers secondary susceptible to physical alpha receivers, Collins is in prime position to score first in this win-or-go-home matchup.

Bet365 Spotlight: Nico Collins’ first TD (+600)

This bet has the goal of the Texans star receiver being the first player to reach the end zone in tonight’s game.

• props: Nico Collins first touchdown scorer
• team: Houston Texans
• current odds:+600
• model probability: Dymers’ predictive model goes to Collins 10.4% probability Scoring his first touchdown is the highest of any player in the game.
• Red zone advantage:Collins saw 15 red zone targets Five of them resulted in touchdowns this season.
• historical works: In the past five games, Collins has found the end zone three times, including a 12-yard score in the final game of the season.
• matchup edge: Pittsburgh’s defense allowed it. 1.2 passing touchdowns per game He has often struggled to contain bigger receivers in single coverage situations this season.

Game Details: Texans vs. Steelers (AFC Wild Card)

Important information leading up to tonight’s 8:15pm kickoff at Steel City.

• team: Houston Texans vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
• date:Monday, January 12, 2026
• kick off: 8:15pm ET
• position: Acrizier Stadium (Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania)
• spread: Texans -3 (+100) | Steelers +3 (-110)
• money line: Texans -155 | Steelers +138
• total: 38.5 or more/less than (-105/-115) Odds and lines are accurate at the time of publication and are subject to change.

DimersBOT predictions and probabilities:

Dymers’ analytical model ran 10,000 simulations to predict the outcome of tonight’s AFC Wild Card game.

• Probability of winning: Texans (63%)
• steelers odds: 37%

Expected final score

• Houston 20, Pittsburgh 17

Overview: Best bets for Texans vs. Steelers

While the model identifies Texans money line (-155) As the top game market value, Bet365 Nico Collins first TD (+600) An outstanding choice for prop bettors. Collins’ status as the clear No. 1 option for C.J. Stroud, combined with his high target share in scoring position, gives him a huge advantage in a game where Houston favors controlling the tempo. Against a Steelers unit likely to be focused on stopping runs, Stroud is expected to look for Collins early and often in tonight’s primetime finale.

Minimum deposit of $10 required. Minimum odds -500 or higher. Bonus bet stakes are not eligible for returns. New customers only. T&CS, time limitations and exclusions apply.

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