Can Australia really be eliminated from the World Cup? What does Pakistan need to do to qualify? Al Jazeera explains.

After two weeks of action at the ICC Men’s T20 World Cup 2026, four teams have booked their spots in the next round of the tournament, with 13 teams vying for the remaining five spots.

In a rare scenario, 2021 champion Australia is in danger of dropping out of the tournament at the first hurdle, while America doesn’t have a good chance of advancing.

Al Jazeera analyzes the chances and routes to qualify for the Super Eight as follows:

Which teams qualified for the Super Eight?

Co-hosts Sri Lanka beat Australia on Monday, joining defending champions India, two-time champions West Indies and England, and South Africa as the latest teams to win.

Which team will be eliminated from the Super Eight Race?

Namibia, Nepal and Oman were eliminated from the tournament after losing all three of their group stage matches. They will each have one group game left to play, but that will not be crucial to their promotion chances.

Can Pakistan still qualify for the Super Eights?

A win against Namibia in the final group match would see Pakistan advance to the next stage, but a loss could see them face the US in a battle of net run rates.

The 2009 champions currently have a net run rate of 0.932, which is higher than the United States’ 0.788, but a loss to Namibia and that difference could change that number and put Pakistan in trouble.

Will Australia really be eliminated from the T20 World Cup?

As was the case in 2009, the prospect of Australia being eliminated in the group stage of the World Cup will come as a shock to cricket fans accustomed to seeing the yellow and gold dominating the world championships.

Australia, who lost in the second leg of the World Cup, won their final match against Oman on Friday by a big margin and will hope the other results in Group B go well to qualify for the Super 8s.

However, winning the last match may not be enough for Australia as they could be eliminated from the World Cup based on their net run rate. A win against Oman would take Mitchell Marsh’s side to four points, but second-placed Zimbabwe could end up with eight, six or four points.

The 2021 champions will be hoping for Zimbabwe to finish with two points after losing to Sri Lanka and Ireland to qualify.

Which other teams qualify for the Super Eight?

Group A: Pakistan is the favorite to earn two qualifying spots, and the United States is still in the mix.

Group B: This group will be the most exciting of the four in the final round, with either Zimbabwe or Australia likely to advance.

Group C: West Indies and England have qualified.

Group D: A win against lowly Canada will give New Zealand confidence to join current group leaders South Africa in the next round. Afghanistan is still in contention for a spot, but their only chance to qualify is if they beat Canada and New Zealand lose to Canada.

When will the T20 World Cup Super Eights match be played?

The second stage of the tournament will take place from February 21st to March 1st.