Another arctic cold front arrives for next weekend. A cold front could arrive on Saturday. After the front passes, models show a low pressure system developing just off the coast of North Carolina. This is often a suitable setting for our region’s winter precipitation.

The success of winter precipitation in our region depends entirely on the exact path of this low pressure system. But as of midday Thursday, models are starting to paint a clearer picture. It looks like there’s a chance of snow, wintry air, and cold rain. It all depends on where you live. Looking at the trends in the latest model, it looks like a typical central North Carolina winter system. The highest chance of snow will be in the Triangle and northwest locations, with more snow expected in eastern counties. It might just be a cold rain falling along the coast.

• If it’s too far offshore, you won’t catch anything. Moisture remains trapped on the coast. This doesn’t seem like a likely scenario.

• If you’re a little closer to the coast, it might snow. It is unlikely that our area will be the only snow-only system.

• If the low pressure system stays further inland, a possible scenario is a wintry mix for eastern counties and more snow for northwest counties. This may be the most likely scenario.

WRAL Meteorologist Kat Campbell said, “It’s nice to see a better model agreement, and this looks like a pretty typical winter system for our region where we have to deal with all kinds of precipitation.”

Winter weather is likely on Sunday

As of Thursday morning, the U.S. Global Forecast System model is bringing an area of ​​low pressure north along the coastline, creating a good chance for snow in central North Carolina, while the European model is bringing this low pressure offshore, potentially ending up with snow and possibly a wintry mix. Our in-house model pulls the low pressure further offshore, keeping conditions fairly dry across central North Carolina.

Some parts of the coast now have a 40-50% chance of getting an inch of snow.

If a low pressure system were to pass along our coast, it would give our region the best chance of snow.

The WRAL Severe Weather Team will continue to monitor these trends over the next 48 hours to get a better idea of ​​the type and amount of precipitation as we approach Sunday.

If you have any travel plans on Sunday, please keep in touch.